Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% in late-January and mid-March, driven by resilient economic data amid elevated inflation risks. February 2026 CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, steady from January, while unemployment edged to 4.4%, signaling a balanced labor market not warranting cuts; recent oil price surges from geopolitical tensions further reinforce pause expectations versus the Fed's dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March jobs data on April 4 or CPI undershooting on April 10, potentially shifting sentiment ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于连续暂停 98.0%
暂停–暂停–降息 1.1%
其他 <1%
$411,528 交易量
$411,528 交易量
2026-04-29
连续暂停
98%
暂停–暂停–降息
1%
其他
1%
连续暂停 98.0%
暂停–暂停–降息 1.1%
其他 <1%
$411,528 交易量
$411,528 交易量
2026-04-29
连续暂停
$64,604 交易量
98%
暂停–暂停–降息
$170,365 交易量
1%
其他
$136,573 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% in late-January and mid-March, driven by resilient economic data amid elevated inflation risks. February 2026 CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, steady from January, while unemployment edged to 4.4%, signaling a balanced labor market not warranting cuts; recent oil price surges from geopolitical tensions further reinforce pause expectations versus the Fed's dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March jobs data on April 4 or CPI undershooting on April 10, potentially shifting sentiment ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ET
交易量
$411,528结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% in late-January and mid-March, driven by resilient economic data amid elevated inflation risks. February 2026 CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, steady from January, while unemployment edged to 4.4%, signaling a balanced labor market not warranting cuts; recent oil price surges from geopolitical tensions further reinforce pause expectations versus the Fed's dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March jobs data on April 4 or CPI undershooting on April 10, potentially shifting sentiment ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: January 27–28, 2026; March 17-18, 2026; and April 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$411,528结束日期
2026-04-29市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 2:34 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 98% implied probability to Pause–Pause–Pause across the January, March, and April 2026 FOMC meetings, reflecting confirmed decisions to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% in late-January and mid-March, driven by resilient economic data amid elevated inflation risks. February 2026 CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, steady from January, while unemployment edged to 4.4%, signaling a balanced labor market not warranting cuts; recent oil price surges from geopolitical tensions further reinforce pause expectations versus the Fed's dot plot projecting just one cut later in 2026. Challenges could arise from softer-than-expected March jobs data on April 4 or CPI undershooting on April 10, potentially shifting sentiment ahead of the April 28–29 meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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