The Federal Open Market Committee has held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75% since at least the April 2026 meeting, with futures markets assigning over 97% odds of no change at the June 16–17 gathering. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, reinforced by energy price pressures, combined with solid economic growth and a stable labor market, has shifted trader consensus toward fewer or no rate reductions in 2026. Market-implied paths now reflect a higher terminal rate than earlier projections, as participants price in the Fed’s data-dependent stance ahead of the next Summary of Economic Projections. Upcoming catalysts include the June CPI release and the FOMC’s updated dot plot, which could clarify whether policymakers view current conditions as requiring further restraint.