**Persistent above-target inflation and a resilient labor market continue to anchor expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening, delaying any rate cuts well into 2027.** The FOMC held the federal funds target range at 3.75–4.00% after its late-October meeting amid sticky price pressures, with September headline CPI at 3.7% year-over-year and core measures showing limited progress toward the 2% goal. The stronger-than-expected October employment report—adding 165,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.1%—reinforced the case for a 25 basis point hike at the December 8–9 FOMC, which futures and prediction markets currently price at roughly 75–80%. Traders now see the policy rate rising modestly through year-end before any easing cycle begins, reflecting the central bank’s focus on preventing inflation from broadening. Key near-term catalysts include the October CPI release and November employment data, which will shape the final 2026 decision and the subsequent path.