Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 upward revision of its median projection to 2.4% from December's 2.3%, with a central tendency of 2.2–2.5% amid resilient AI-driven investment and solid labor markets holding unemployment steady near 4.4%. This positioning gained traction despite Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.7% annualized and Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 nowcast easing to 2.0% on March 23, as traders weigh ongoing consumer spending and productivity gains against inflation pressures. Lower odds for sub-2.0% outcomes (collectively ~34%) underscore low recession fears, with the Q1 advance estimate due late April as a key near-term catalyst potentially shifting sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于>2.5% 58%
1.5–2.0% 13.8%
低于0.5% 10.0%
2.0–2.5% 9%
NEW
NEW
Jan 29, 2027
低于0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
4%
1.0–1.5%
7%
1.5–2.0%
14%
2.0–2.5%
9%
>2.5%
63%
>2.5% 58%
1.5–2.0% 13.8%
低于0.5% 10.0%
2.0–2.5% 9%
NEW
NEW
Jan 29, 2027
低于0.5%
$0 交易量
10%
0.5–1.0%
$0 交易量
4%
1.0–1.5%
$1,432 交易量
7%
1.5–2.0%
$0 交易量
14%
2.0–2.5%
$1,300 交易量
9%
>2.5%
$0 交易量
63%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 upward revision of its median projection to 2.4% from December's 2.3%, with a central tendency of 2.2–2.5% amid resilient AI-driven investment and solid labor markets holding unemployment steady near 4.4%. This positioning gained traction despite Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.7% annualized and Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 nowcast easing to 2.0% on March 23, as traders weigh ongoing consumer spending and productivity gains against inflation pressures. Lower odds for sub-2.0% outcomes (collectively ~34%) underscore low recession fears, with the Q1 advance estimate due late April as a key near-term catalyst potentially shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
交易量
$2,732结束日期
Jan 29, 2027市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 upward revision of its median projection to 2.4% from December's 2.3%, with a central tendency of 2.2–2.5% amid resilient AI-driven investment and solid labor markets holding unemployment steady near 4.4%. This positioning gained traction despite Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.7% annualized and Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 nowcast easing to 2.0% on March 23, as traders weigh ongoing consumer spending and productivity gains against inflation pressures. Lower odds for sub-2.0% outcomes (collectively ~34%) underscore low recession fears, with the Q1 advance estimate due late April as a key near-term catalyst potentially shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$2,732结束日期
Jan 29, 2027市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 62.5% implied probability for US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting the Federal Open Market Committee's March 18 upward revision of its median projection to 2.4% from December's 2.3%, with a central tendency of 2.2–2.5% amid resilient AI-driven investment and solid labor markets holding unemployment steady near 4.4%. This positioning gained traction despite Q4 2025 GDP's downward revision to 0.7% annualized and Atlanta Fed's Q1 2026 nowcast easing to 2.0% on March 23, as traders weigh ongoing consumer spending and productivity gains against inflation pressures. Lower odds for sub-2.0% outcomes (collectively ~34%) underscore low recession fears, with the Q1 advance estimate due late April as a key near-term catalyst potentially shifting sentiment.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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