Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below consensus expectations, has anchored trader sentiment for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% range, with the 4.3-4.6% outcome holding a 54.5% implied probability. Persistent softness in domestic demand, the property sector, and private investment continues to weigh on momentum, though resilient exports in high-tech manufacturing provide some offset. Beijing’s official 4.5-5% full-year target and expectations for stepped-up fiscal and monetary stimulus ahead of the October 19 release support the current market-implied odds, while broader forecasts from institutions remain clustered near 4.5%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 5.1%
<3.4% 4.7%
$17,627 交易量
$17,627 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
5%
3.4-3.7%
1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
5%
4.3-4.6%
55%
4.6-4.9%
34%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
2%
5.5%+
2%
4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 5.1%
<3.4% 4.7%
$17,627 交易量
$17,627 交易量
2026-10-20
<3.4%
$638 交易量
5%
3.4-3.7%
$390 交易量
1%
3.7-4.0%
$433 交易量
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,074 交易量
5%
4.3-4.6%
$4,635 交易量
55%
4.6-4.9%
$7,197 交易量
34%
4.9-5.2%
$2,166 交易量
3%
5.2-5.5%
$403 交易量
2%
5.5%+
$691 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below consensus expectations, has anchored trader sentiment for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% range, with the 4.3-4.6% outcome holding a 54.5% implied probability. Persistent softness in domestic demand, the property sector, and private investment continues to weigh on momentum, though resilient exports in high-tech manufacturing provide some offset. Beijing’s official 4.5-5% full-year target and expectations for stepped-up fiscal and monetary stimulus ahead of the October 19 release support the current market-implied odds, while broader forecasts from institutions remain clustered near 4.5%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
市场开放时间： Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
交易量
$17,627结束日期
2026-10-20市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below consensus expectations, has anchored trader sentiment for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% range, with the 4.3-4.6% outcome holding a 54.5% implied probability. Persistent softness in domestic demand, the property sector, and private investment continues to weigh on momentum, though resilient exports in high-tech manufacturing provide some offset. Beijing’s official 4.5-5% full-year target and expectations for stepped-up fiscal and monetary stimulus ahead of the October 19 release support the current market-implied odds, while broader forecasts from institutions remain clustered near 4.5%.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
交易量
$17,627结束日期
2026-10-20市场开放时间
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 4.3% year-over-year, below consensus expectations, has anchored trader sentiment for Q3 around the 4.3-4.9% range, with the 4.3-4.6% outcome holding a 54.5% implied probability. Persistent softness in domestic demand, the property sector, and private investment continues to weigh on momentum, though resilient exports in high-tech manufacturing provide some offset. Beijing’s official 4.5-5% full-year target and expectations for stepped-up fiscal and monetary stimulus ahead of the October 19 release support the current market-implied odds, while broader forecasts from institutions remain clustered near 4.5%.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题