Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.7% annualized—positive despite deceleration—and steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, allowing the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18 amid balanced risks. However, February nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92,000 jobs, lifting unemployment to 4.4%, while Iran conflict-driven oil price surges have elevated recession risks to around 35%, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month odds to 30%. Key catalysts include April's Q1 GDP advance estimate and May FOMC meeting, with forecasts eyeing 2.2% full-year expansion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$907,683 交易量
$907,683 交易量
Jan 31, 2027
是
$907,683 交易量
$907,683 交易量
Jan 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.7% annualized—positive despite deceleration—and steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, allowing the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18 amid balanced risks. However, February nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92,000 jobs, lifting unemployment to 4.4%, while Iran conflict-driven oil price surges have elevated recession risks to around 35%, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month odds to 30%. Key catalysts include April's Q1 GDP advance estimate and May FOMC meeting, with forecasts eyeing 2.2% full-year expansion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
市场开放时间： Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
交易量
$907,683结束日期
Jan 31, 2027市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.7% annualized—positive despite deceleration—and steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, allowing the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18 amid balanced risks. However, February nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92,000 jobs, lifting unemployment to 4.4%, while Iran conflict-driven oil price surges have elevated recession risks to around 35%, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month odds to 30%. Key catalysts include April's Q1 GDP advance estimate and May FOMC meeting, with forecasts eyeing 2.2% full-year expansion.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
交易量
$907,709结束日期
Jan 31, 2027市场开放时间
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 64.5% implied probability to no US recession by end-2026, reflecting resilient Q4 2025 GDP growth of 0.7% annualized—positive despite deceleration—and steady February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year, allowing the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% on March 18 amid balanced risks. However, February nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly declined by 92,000 jobs, lifting unemployment to 4.4%, while Iran conflict-driven oil price surges have elevated recession risks to around 35%, prompting Goldman Sachs to raise its 12-month odds to 30%. Key catalysts include April's Q1 GDP advance estimate and May FOMC meeting, with forecasts eyeing 2.2% full-year expansion.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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