Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) May policy rate at 6.75%, following its surprise 25 basis point cut to that level on March 26 amid stubbornly elevated headline inflation reaching 4.63% in early March—well above the 3% target—yet prioritizing weak economic activity with January's monthly contraction and low unemployment around 2.7%. The dovish split-vote decision, which resumed easing despite core CPI holding steady at 0.22% monthly, has tempered further cut expectations to 16.5%, as Banxico raised near-term inflation forecasts while projecting a return to target by Q2 2027. Hike odds at 9.6% remain slim, reflecting growth resilience and upgraded 2026 GDP forecasts to 1.8%; traders eye April CPI and activity data for May signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于维持不变 76%
降息 16%
加息 9.5%
NEW
NEW
May 7, 2026
降息
16%
维持不变
76%
加息
10%
维持不变 76%
降息 16%
加息 9.5%
NEW
NEW
May 7, 2026
降息
$671 交易量
16%
维持不变
$1,582 交易量
76%
加息
$285 交易量
10%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) May policy rate at 6.75%, following its surprise 25 basis point cut to that level on March 26 amid stubbornly elevated headline inflation reaching 4.63% in early March—well above the 3% target—yet prioritizing weak economic activity with January's monthly contraction and low unemployment around 2.7%. The dovish split-vote decision, which resumed easing despite core CPI holding steady at 0.22% monthly, has tempered further cut expectations to 16.5%, as Banxico raised near-term inflation forecasts while projecting a return to target by Q2 2027. Hike odds at 9.6% remain slim, reflecting growth resilience and upgraded 2026 GDP forecasts to 1.8%; traders eye April CPI and activity data for May signals.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ET
交易量
$2,538结束日期
May 7, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) May policy rate at 6.75%, following its surprise 25 basis point cut to that level on March 26 amid stubbornly elevated headline inflation reaching 4.63% in early March—well above the 3% target—yet prioritizing weak economic activity with January's monthly contraction and low unemployment around 2.7%. The dovish split-vote decision, which resumed easing despite core CPI holding steady at 0.22% monthly, has tempered further cut expectations to 16.5%, as Banxico raised near-term inflation forecasts while projecting a return to target by Q2 2027. Hike odds at 9.6% remain slim, reflecting growth resilience and upgraded 2026 GDP forecasts to 1.8%; traders eye April CPI and activity data for May signals.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's May 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for May 7, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their May meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$2,538结束日期
May 7, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75.5% implied probability for no change in the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) May policy rate at 6.75%, following its surprise 25 basis point cut to that level on March 26 amid stubbornly elevated headline inflation reaching 4.63% in early March—well above the 3% target—yet prioritizing weak economic activity with January's monthly contraction and low unemployment around 2.7%. The dovish split-vote decision, which resumed easing despite core CPI holding steady at 0.22% monthly, has tempered further cut expectations to 16.5%, as Banxico raised near-term inflation forecasts while projecting a return to target by Q2 2027. Hike odds at 9.6% remain slim, reflecting growth resilience and upgraded 2026 GDP forecasts to 1.8%; traders eye April CPI and activity data for May signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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