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Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?

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经济·全局费率

Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?

Apr 7

May 27

Apr 7

May 27

No Change 60%

Increase 32%

Decrease 6.2%

Polymarket
NEW

No Change 60%

Increase 32%

Decrease 6.2%

Polymarket
NEW

Increase

$253 交易量

36%

No Change

$308 交易量

61%

Decrease

$711 交易量

6%

This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the February 18 hold at a stimulatory 2.25% amid slightly elevated Q4 2025 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year—topping the 1-3% target band—yet expected to ease toward 2% over the coming year. A 36% chance of a hike stems from persistent inflation risks and low neutral rate estimates around 3%, despite softening Q4 GDP growth of just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (below expectations) and unemployment rising to a decade-high 5.4%. A rate cut at 6.2% appears unlikely given the pickup in economic activity from accommodative policy, with Q1 CPI and employment data as key near-term catalysts.

Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the February 18 hold at a stimulatory 2.25% amid slightly elevated Q4 2025 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year—topping the 1-3% target band—yet expected to ease toward 2% over the coming year. A 36% chance of a hike stems from persistent inflation risks and low neutral rate estimates around 3%, despite softening Q4 GDP growth of just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (below expectations) and unemployment rising to a decade-high 5.4%. A rate cut at 6.2% appears unlikely given the pickup in economic activity from accommodative policy, with Q1 CPI and employment data as key near-term catalysts.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the February 18 hold at a stimulatory 2.25% amid slightly elevated Q4 2025 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year—topping the 1-3% target band—yet expected to ease toward 2% over the coming year. A 36% chance of a hike stems from persistent inflation risks and low neutral rate estimates around 3%, despite softening Q4 GDP growth of just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (below expectations) and unemployment rising to a decade-high 5.4%. A rate cut at 6.2% appears unlikely given the pickup in economic activity from accommodative policy, with Q1 CPI and employment data as key near-term catalysts.

Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27 Monetary Policy Statement, reflecting the February 18 hold at a stimulatory 2.25% amid slightly elevated Q4 2025 CPI at 3.1% year-over-year—topping the 1-3% target band—yet expected to ease toward 2% over the coming year. A 36% chance of a hike stems from persistent inflation risks and low neutral rate estimates around 3%, despite softening Q4 GDP growth of just 0.2% quarter-over-quarter (below expectations) and unemployment rising to a decade-high 5.4%. A rate cut at 6.2% appears unlikely given the pickup in economic activity from accommodative policy, with Q1 CPI and employment data as key near-term catalysts.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 3 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"No Change"，概率为 61%，其次是"Increase"，概率为 36%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 61¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 61%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Feb 17, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 3 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?"的当前领先者是"No Change"，概率为 61%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 61%。紧随其后的结果是"Increase"，概率为 36%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。