Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27, 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, aligning with the RBNZ's February 18 hold at 2.25% and its forecast track showing a modest rise to 2.38% by year-end amid accommodative policy. The elevated 36% odds for an increase reflect sticky inflation pressures, with December 2025 quarterly CPI at 3.1%—above the 1-3% target—and surveys indicating one-year-ahead expectations rising to 2.59%, alongside pickup in breakeven inflation rates. A mere 6.2% chance of decrease underscores nascent economic recovery and spare capacity easing prices. Key catalyst ahead: March quarter CPI release on April 21, which could sway rate path expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于No Change 60%
Increase 32%
Decrease 6.2%
NEW
NEW
May 27, 2026
Increase
36%
No Change
61%
Decrease
6%
No Change 60%
Increase 32%
Decrease 6.2%
NEW
NEW
May 27, 2026
Increase
$253 交易量
36%
No Change
$308 交易量
61%
Decrease
$711 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27, 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, aligning with the RBNZ's February 18 hold at 2.25% and its forecast track showing a modest rise to 2.38% by year-end amid accommodative policy. The elevated 36% odds for an increase reflect sticky inflation pressures, with December 2025 quarterly CPI at 3.1%—above the 1-3% target—and surveys indicating one-year-ahead expectations rising to 2.59%, alongside pickup in breakeven inflation rates. A mere 6.2% chance of decrease underscores nascent economic recovery and spare capacity easing prices. Key catalyst ahead: March quarter CPI release on April 21, which could sway rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
交易量
$1,272结束日期
May 27, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27, 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, aligning with the RBNZ's February 18 hold at 2.25% and its forecast track showing a modest rise to 2.38% by year-end amid accommodative policy. The elevated 36% odds for an increase reflect sticky inflation pressures, with December 2025 quarterly CPI at 3.1%—above the 1-3% target—and surveys indicating one-year-ahead expectations rising to 2.59%, alongside pickup in breakeven inflation rates. A mere 6.2% chance of decrease underscores nascent economic recovery and spare capacity easing prices. Key catalyst ahead: March quarter CPI release on April 21, which could sway rate path expectations.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$1,272结束日期
May 27, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 61% implied probability of no change in the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's Official Cash Rate (OCR) at its May 27, 2026 Monetary Policy Statement, aligning with the RBNZ's February 18 hold at 2.25% and its forecast track showing a modest rise to 2.38% by year-end amid accommodative policy. The elevated 36% odds for an increase reflect sticky inflation pressures, with December 2025 quarterly CPI at 3.1%—above the 1-3% target—and surveys indicating one-year-ahead expectations rising to 2.59%, alongside pickup in breakeven inflation rates. A mere 6.2% chance of decrease underscores nascent economic recovery and spare capacity easing prices. Key catalyst ahead: March quarter CPI release on April 21, which could sway rate path expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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