The Reserve Bank of Australia’s June 16 monetary policy decision carries a 96.8% market-implied probability of no change at the current 4.35% cash rate target, reflecting trader consensus that the May 25-basis-point hike requires time to transmit through the economy. Recent April 2026 CPI data at 4.2% year-over-year remains above the 2–3% target band, yet futures pricing and major-bank forecasts show near-unanimous expectations for a hold to evaluate inflation momentum and labor-market conditions after three tightening moves this year. Elevated oil prices linked to Middle East developments continue to influence the inflation outlook, while forward curves price only modest further increases later in 2026. A surprise shift would require either markedly stronger-than-expected inflation prints or a sharp deterioration in growth data ahead of the meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于无变化 96.6%
上调 2.8%
下调 <1%
$36,453 交易量
$36,453 交易量
2026-06-16
下调
<1%
无变化
97%
上调
3%
无变化 96.6%
上调 2.8%
下调 <1%
$36,453 交易量
$36,453 交易量
2026-06-16
下调
$10,621 交易量
<1%
无变化
$13,061 交易量
97%
上调
$12,771 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The Reserve Bank of Australia’s June 16 monetary policy decision carries a 96.8% market-implied probability of no change at the current 4.35% cash rate target, reflecting trader consensus that the May 25-basis-point hike requires time to transmit through the economy. Recent April 2026 CPI data at 4.2% year-over-year remains above the 2–3% target band, yet futures pricing and major-bank forecasts show near-unanimous expectations for a hold to evaluate inflation momentum and labor-market conditions after three tightening moves this year. Elevated oil prices linked to Middle East developments continue to influence the inflation outlook, while forward curves price only modest further increases later in 2026. A surprise shift would require either markedly stronger-than-expected inflation prints or a sharp deterioration in growth data ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
交易量
$36,453结束日期
2026-06-16市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.The Reserve Bank of Australia’s June 16 monetary policy decision carries a 96.8% market-implied probability of no change at the current 4.35% cash rate target, reflecting trader consensus that the May 25-basis-point hike requires time to transmit through the economy. Recent April 2026 CPI data at 4.2% year-over-year remains above the 2–3% target band, yet futures pricing and major-bank forecasts show near-unanimous expectations for a hold to evaluate inflation momentum and labor-market conditions after three tightening moves this year. Elevated oil prices linked to Middle East developments continue to influence the inflation outlook, while forward curves price only modest further increases later in 2026. A surprise shift would require either markedly stronger-than-expected inflation prints or a sharp deterioration in growth data ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its June 16, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their June 16, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
交易量
$36,453结束日期
2026-06-16市场开放时间
Mar 19, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Reserve Bank of Australia’s June 16 monetary policy decision carries a 96.8% market-implied probability of no change at the current 4.35% cash rate target, reflecting trader consensus that the May 25-basis-point hike requires time to transmit through the economy. Recent April 2026 CPI data at 4.2% year-over-year remains above the 2–3% target band, yet futures pricing and major-bank forecasts show near-unanimous expectations for a hold to evaluate inflation momentum and labor-market conditions after three tightening moves this year. Elevated oil prices linked to Middle East developments continue to influence the inflation outlook, while forward curves price only modest further increases later in 2026. A surprise shift would require either markedly stronger-than-expected inflation prints or a sharp deterioration in growth data ahead of the meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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