Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of an RBA cash rate increase at the May 2026 meeting, reflecting the Monetary Policy Board's split 5-4 decision to hike 25 basis points to 4.10% on March 17 amid sticky inflation. February 2026 CPI eased marginally to 3.7% year-on-year—still above the 2-3% target—exacerbated by Middle East tensions driving energy costs higher, outweighing a softening labor market where unemployment rose to 4.3% despite robust February job gains. No-change odds at 34.5% capture debate over transmission lags, while cuts at 0.9% remain negligible. Key catalysts ahead include April quarterly CPI and March employment data, alongside ASX futures implying around 70% hike odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于上调 61%
不变 35%
下调 <1%
$20,116 交易量
$20,116 交易量
May 5, 2026
下调
1%
不变
35%
上调
61%
上调 61%
不变 35%
下调 <1%
$20,116 交易量
$20,116 交易量
May 5, 2026
下调
$5,612 交易量
1%
不变
$2,435 交易量
35%
上调
$12,068 交易量
61%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of an RBA cash rate increase at the May 2026 meeting, reflecting the Monetary Policy Board's split 5-4 decision to hike 25 basis points to 4.10% on March 17 amid sticky inflation. February 2026 CPI eased marginally to 3.7% year-on-year—still above the 2-3% target—exacerbated by Middle East tensions driving energy costs higher, outweighing a softening labor market where unemployment rose to 4.3% despite robust February job gains. No-change odds at 34.5% capture debate over transmission lags, while cuts at 0.9% remain negligible. Key catalysts ahead include April quarterly CPI and March employment data, alongside ASX futures implying around 70% hike odds.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET
交易量
$20,116结束日期
May 5, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of an RBA cash rate increase at the May 2026 meeting, reflecting the Monetary Policy Board's split 5-4 decision to hike 25 basis points to 4.10% on March 17 amid sticky inflation. February 2026 CPI eased marginally to 3.7% year-on-year—still above the 2-3% target—exacerbated by Middle East tensions driving energy costs higher, outweighing a softening labor market where unemployment rose to 4.3% despite robust February job gains. No-change odds at 34.5% capture debate over transmission lags, while cuts at 0.9% remain negligible. Key catalysts ahead include April quarterly CPI and March employment data, alongside ASX futures implying around 70% hike odds.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
交易量
$20,116结束日期
May 5, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 61% implied probability of an RBA cash rate increase at the May 2026 meeting, reflecting the Monetary Policy Board's split 5-4 decision to hike 25 basis points to 4.10% on March 17 amid sticky inflation. February 2026 CPI eased marginally to 3.7% year-on-year—still above the 2-3% target—exacerbated by Middle East tensions driving energy costs higher, outweighing a softening labor market where unemployment rose to 4.3% despite robust February job gains. No-change odds at 34.5% capture debate over transmission lags, while cuts at 0.9% remain negligible. Key catalysts ahead include April quarterly CPI and March employment data, alongside ASX futures implying around 70% hike odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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