Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate target by at least 25 basis points in May 2026, reflecting consensus on persistent inflationary pressures following the RBA's March 17 hike to 4.10%—its second increase this year amid CPI at 3.7% year-on-year through February and trimmed mean inflation at 3.3%. Strong labor market dynamics, with February employment surging 48,900 despite unemployment ticking up to 4.3% on higher participation, reinforce tightening expectations, aligning with major bank forecasts like CBA and ANZ for a further 25 basis point move to 4.35%. Upcoming April CPI and employment data will be pivotal ahead of the May 6 decision.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于上调 65%
不变 35%
下调 <1%
$20,786 交易量
$20,786 交易量
May 5, 2026
下调
1%
不变
35%
上调
65%
上调 65%
不变 35%
下调 <1%
$20,786 交易量
$20,786 交易量
May 5, 2026
下调
$5,612 交易量
1%
不变
$2,435 交易量
35%
上调
$12,738 交易量
65%
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate target by at least 25 basis points in May 2026, reflecting consensus on persistent inflationary pressures following the RBA's March 17 hike to 4.10%—its second increase this year amid CPI at 3.7% year-on-year through February and trimmed mean inflation at 3.3%. Strong labor market dynamics, with February employment surging 48,900 despite unemployment ticking up to 4.3% on higher participation, reinforce tightening expectations, aligning with major bank forecasts like CBA and ANZ for a further 25 basis point move to 4.35%. Upcoming April CPI and employment data will be pivotal ahead of the May 6 decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ET
交易量
$20,786结束日期
May 5, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate target by at least 25 basis points in May 2026, reflecting consensus on persistent inflationary pressures following the RBA's March 17 hike to 4.10%—its second increase this year amid CPI at 3.7% year-on-year through February and trimmed mean inflation at 3.3%. Strong labor market dynamics, with February employment surging 48,900 despite unemployment ticking up to 4.3% on higher participation, reinforce tightening expectations, aligning with major bank forecasts like CBA and ANZ for a further 25 basis point move to 4.35%. Upcoming April CPI and employment data will be pivotal ahead of the May 6 decision.
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
交易量
$20,786结束日期
May 5, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 3, 2026, 10:32 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 65% implied probability for the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise its cash rate target by at least 25 basis points in May 2026, reflecting consensus on persistent inflationary pressures following the RBA's March 17 hike to 4.10%—its second increase this year amid CPI at 3.7% year-on-year through February and trimmed mean inflation at 3.3%. Strong labor market dynamics, with February employment surging 48,900 despite unemployment ticking up to 4.3% on higher participation, reinforce tightening expectations, aligning with major bank forecasts like CBA and ANZ for a further 25 basis point move to 4.35%. Upcoming April CPI and employment data will be pivotal ahead of the May 6 decision.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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