Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting while raising 2026 inflation forecasts to 2.6% from 1.9%. Hawkish signals from officials like Bundesbank President Nagel, who called an April hike "an option," and Bank of France Governor Villeroy, who deemed the next move likely upward despite uncertain timing, have lifted the increase probability to 24.9% on Polymarket. Yet trader consensus favors no change at 74.8% for the April 29-30 decision, reflecting caution amid economic headwinds, with cuts near zero as disinflation fades.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于不作出调整 74.9%
加息 24.8%
50个基点以上的降息 <1%
下调25个基点 <1%
$287,511 交易量
$287,511 交易量
2026-04-30
50个基点以上的降息
<1%
下调25个基点
<1%
不作出调整
75%
加息
25%
不作出调整 74.9%
加息 24.8%
50个基点以上的降息 <1%
下调25个基点 <1%
$287,511 交易量
$287,511 交易量
2026-04-30
50个基点以上的降息
$54,564 交易量
<1%
下调25个基点
$57,135 交易量
<1%
不作出调整
$81,076 交易量
75%
加息
$94,736 交易量
25%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting while raising 2026 inflation forecasts to 2.6% from 1.9%. Hawkish signals from officials like Bundesbank President Nagel, who called an April hike "an option," and Bank of France Governor Villeroy, who deemed the next move likely upward despite uncertain timing, have lifted the increase probability to 24.9% on Polymarket. Yet trader consensus favors no change at 74.8% for the April 29-30 decision, reflecting caution amid economic headwinds, with cuts near zero as disinflation fades.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
市场开放时间： Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ET
交易量
$287,511结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting while raising 2026 inflation forecasts to 2.6% from 1.9%. Hawkish signals from officials like Bundesbank President Nagel, who called an April hike "an option," and Bank of France Governor Villeroy, who deemed the next move likely upward despite uncertain timing, have lifted the increase probability to 24.9% on Polymarket. Yet trader consensus favors no change at 74.8% for the April 29-30 decision, reflecting caution amid economic headwinds, with cuts near zero as disinflation fades.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) April 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its April 30, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the April 30, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
交易量
$287,511结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Feb 6, 2026, 3:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Eurozone inflation surged to 2.5% in March—above the ECB's 2% target—driven by elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict, prompting the Governing Council to hold key interest rates unchanged at its March 19 meeting while raising 2026 inflation forecasts to 2.6% from 1.9%. Hawkish signals from officials like Bundesbank President Nagel, who called an April hike "an option," and Bank of France Governor Villeroy, who deemed the next move likely upward despite uncertain timing, have lifted the increase probability to 24.9% on Polymarket. Yet trader consensus favors no change at 74.8% for the April 29-30 decision, reflecting caution amid economic headwinds, with cuts near zero as disinflation fades.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题