Trader sentiment on Polymarket shows a closely contested implied probability of 52.5% for a Bank of Canada policy rate hike in 2026, reflecting balanced risks between cooling inflation and softening labor market conditions. February 2026 CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—while unemployment rose to 6.7% amid 84,000 net job losses, supporting the Governing Council's decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18. However, money markets have priced in up to 75 basis points of hikes later in the year, citing global uncertainties like U.S. tariffs and potential inflation rebound. Key swing factors include March CPI and employment data due soon, plus the April 29 rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report, which could decisively shift the odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-12-31
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader sentiment on Polymarket shows a closely contested implied probability of 52.5% for a Bank of Canada policy rate hike in 2026, reflecting balanced risks between cooling inflation and softening labor market conditions. February 2026 CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—while unemployment rose to 6.7% amid 84,000 net job losses, supporting the Governing Council's decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18. However, money markets have priced in up to 75 basis points of hikes later in the year, citing global uncertainties like U.S. tariffs and potential inflation rebound. Key swing factors include March CPI and employment data due soon, plus the April 29 rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report, which could decisively shift the odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
交易量
$3,073结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader sentiment on Polymarket shows a closely contested implied probability of 52.5% for a Bank of Canada policy rate hike in 2026, reflecting balanced risks between cooling inflation and softening labor market conditions. February 2026 CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—while unemployment rose to 6.7% amid 84,000 net job losses, supporting the Governing Council's decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18. However, money markets have priced in up to 75 basis points of hikes later in the year, citing global uncertainties like U.S. tariffs and potential inflation rebound. Key swing factors include March CPI and employment data due soon, plus the April 29 rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report, which could decisively shift the odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$3,073结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Polymarket shows a closely contested implied probability of 52.5% for a Bank of Canada policy rate hike in 2026, reflecting balanced risks between cooling inflation and softening labor market conditions. February 2026 CPI eased to 1.8% year-over-year—below the 2% target—while unemployment rose to 6.7% amid 84,000 net job losses, supporting the Governing Council's decision to hold the overnight rate at 2.25% on March 18. However, money markets have priced in up to 75 basis points of hikes later in the year, citing global uncertainties like U.S. tariffs and potential inflation rebound. Key swing factors include March CPI and employment data due soon, plus the April 29 rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report, which could decisively shift the odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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