Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada's April 24 policy decision, with rate cuts and hikes trading below 6% combined, reflecting consensus that the current 4.75% policy rate remains appropriately restrictive. This strong positioning stems from March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—slightly above the 2.8% forecast—alongside sticky core measures near 3%, tempering cut expectations despite unemployment ticking up to 6.1% and softening labor conditions. Governor Macklem's recent remarks emphasized data dependence without signaling urgency for adjustment. Realistic challenges include a sharper inflation downside surprise or renewed economic weakness in upcoming GDP and jobs data, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于维持原状 93.8%
加息 5.1%
降息25个基点 1.3%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$56,408 交易量
$56,408 交易量
Apr 29, 2026
降息50个基点以上
<1%
降息25个基点
1%
维持原状
94%
加息
5%
维持原状 93.8%
加息 5.1%
降息25个基点 1.3%
降息50个基点以上 <1%
$56,408 交易量
$56,408 交易量
Apr 29, 2026
降息50个基点以上
$14,174 交易量
<1%
降息25个基点
$20,717 交易量
1%
维持原状
$13,733 交易量
94%
加息
$7,784 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada's April 24 policy decision, with rate cuts and hikes trading below 6% combined, reflecting consensus that the current 4.75% policy rate remains appropriately restrictive. This strong positioning stems from March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—slightly above the 2.8% forecast—alongside sticky core measures near 3%, tempering cut expectations despite unemployment ticking up to 6.1% and softening labor conditions. Governor Macklem's recent remarks emphasized data dependence without signaling urgency for adjustment. Realistic challenges include a sharper inflation downside surprise or renewed economic weakness in upcoming GDP and jobs data, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
交易量
$56,408结束日期
Apr 29, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada's April 24 policy decision, with rate cuts and hikes trading below 6% combined, reflecting consensus that the current 4.75% policy rate remains appropriately restrictive. This strong positioning stems from March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—slightly above the 2.8% forecast—alongside sticky core measures near 3%, tempering cut expectations despite unemployment ticking up to 6.1% and softening labor conditions. Governor Macklem's recent remarks emphasized data dependence without signaling urgency for adjustment. Realistic challenges include a sharper inflation downside surprise or renewed economic weakness in upcoming GDP and jobs data, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's April 2026 meeting.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its April 29, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$56,408结束日期
Apr 29, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a 94.5% implied probability to no change at the Bank of Canada's April 24 policy decision, with rate cuts and hikes trading below 6% combined, reflecting consensus that the current 4.75% policy rate remains appropriately restrictive. This strong positioning stems from March CPI data released April 16 showing headline inflation at 2.9% year-over-year—slightly above the 2.8% forecast—alongside sticky core measures near 3%, tempering cut expectations despite unemployment ticking up to 6.1% and softening labor conditions. Governor Macklem's recent remarks emphasized data dependence without signaling urgency for adjustment. Realistic challenges include a sharper inflation downside surprise or renewed economic weakness in upcoming GDP and jobs data, potentially reviving 25 basis point cut odds ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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