Polymarket traders price a 32% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 0-1% at 28%, reflecting trader consensus on subdued expansion amid a weak economic start and escalating risks. January 2026 GDP stagnated at 0% following meager 0.1% growth in Q4 2025, while the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast of 1.1% growth was overshadowed by the OECD's sharper 0.7% projection, compounded by Middle East conflicts driving energy prices higher. Sticky CPI inflation at 3% in February prompted the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, with unemployment expected to peak at 5.3%. Key swing factors include Q1-Q2 GDP releases and oil price trajectories, potentially tipping sentiment toward contraction if labor softening accelerates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0-1% 46%
<0 32%
1-2% 19%
3-4% 11.6%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
32%
0-1%
28%
1-2%
19%
2-3%
10%
3-4%
12%
4-5%
9%
5%及以上
7%
0-1% 46%
<0 32%
1-2% 19%
3-4% 11.6%
NEW
NEW
Feb 12, 2027
<0
$229 交易量
32%
0-1%
$248 交易量
28%
1-2%
$205 交易量
19%
2-3%
$206 交易量
10%
3-4%
$193 交易量
12%
4-5%
$283 交易量
9%
5%及以上
$220 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 32% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 0-1% at 28%, reflecting trader consensus on subdued expansion amid a weak economic start and escalating risks. January 2026 GDP stagnated at 0% following meager 0.1% growth in Q4 2025, while the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast of 1.1% growth was overshadowed by the OECD's sharper 0.7% projection, compounded by Middle East conflicts driving energy prices higher. Sticky CPI inflation at 3% in February prompted the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, with unemployment expected to peak at 5.3%. Key swing factors include Q1-Q2 GDP releases and oil price trajectories, potentially tipping sentiment toward contraction if labor softening accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
交易量
$1,584结束日期
Feb 12, 2027市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 32% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 0-1% at 28%, reflecting trader consensus on subdued expansion amid a weak economic start and escalating risks. January 2026 GDP stagnated at 0% following meager 0.1% growth in Q4 2025, while the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast of 1.1% growth was overshadowed by the OECD's sharper 0.7% projection, compounded by Middle East conflicts driving energy prices higher. Sticky CPI inflation at 3% in February prompted the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, with unemployment expected to peak at 5.3%. Key swing factors include Q1-Q2 GDP releases and oil price trajectories, potentially tipping sentiment toward contraction if labor softening accelerates.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,584结束日期
Feb 12, 2027市场开放时间
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 32% implied probability for UK annual GDP growth below 0% in 2026, narrowly ahead of 0-1% at 28%, reflecting trader consensus on subdued expansion amid a weak economic start and escalating risks. January 2026 GDP stagnated at 0% following meager 0.1% growth in Q4 2025, while the Office for Budget Responsibility's March forecast of 1.1% growth was overshadowed by the OECD's sharper 0.7% projection, compounded by Middle East conflicts driving energy prices higher. Sticky CPI inflation at 3% in February prompted the Bank of England to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% on March 19, with unemployment expected to peak at 5.3%. Key swing factors include Q1-Q2 GDP releases and oil price trajectories, potentially tipping sentiment toward contraction if labor softening accelerates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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