Polymarket traders show a razor-thin consensus for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth, pricing 0.6–0.8% at a leading 35% implied probability amid closely bunched outcomes reflecting high uncertainty in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy normalization. Recent BOJ minutes from the October 31 meeting reveal internal debate on further 25 basis point hikes, supported by September core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and year-to-date real wage gains signaling consumption recovery potential, yet tempered by Q2's finalized 0.9% annualized growth masking sluggish household spending. Diverging factors include yen weakness boosting exports versus tightening's drag on capex, plus external risks from China's slowdown and U.S. election trade policies. Key catalysts: Q3 GDP data on November 17 and December BOJ meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0.6–0.8% 35%
0.9–1.1% 30%
1.2%及以上 28%
0.0–0.2% 25%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
24%
-0.3%–-0.1%
19%
0.0–0.2%
25%
0.3–0.5%
23%
0.6–0.8%
35%
0.9–1.1%
30%
1.2%及以上
28%
0.6–0.8% 35%
0.9–1.1% 30%
1.2%及以上 28%
0.0–0.2% 25%
NEW
NEW
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$0 交易量
24%
-0.3%–-0.1%
$0 交易量
19%
0.0–0.2%
$0 交易量
25%
0.3–0.5%
$0 交易量
23%
0.6–0.8%
$7 交易量
35%
0.9–1.1%
$0 交易量
30%
1.2%及以上
$0 交易量
28%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders show a razor-thin consensus for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth, pricing 0.6–0.8% at a leading 35% implied probability amid closely bunched outcomes reflecting high uncertainty in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy normalization. Recent BOJ minutes from the October 31 meeting reveal internal debate on further 25 basis point hikes, supported by September core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and year-to-date real wage gains signaling consumption recovery potential, yet tempered by Q2's finalized 0.9% annualized growth masking sluggish household spending. Diverging factors include yen weakness boosting exports versus tightening's drag on capex, plus external risks from China's slowdown and U.S. election trade policies. Key catalysts: Q3 GDP data on November 17 and December BOJ meeting.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$7结束日期
May 19, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlPolymarket traders show a razor-thin consensus for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth, pricing 0.6–0.8% at a leading 35% implied probability amid closely bunched outcomes reflecting high uncertainty in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy normalization. Recent BOJ minutes from the October 31 meeting reveal internal debate on further 25 basis point hikes, supported by September core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and year-to-date real wage gains signaling consumption recovery potential, yet tempered by Q2's finalized 0.9% annualized growth masking sluggish household spending. Diverging factors include yen weakness boosting exports versus tightening's drag on capex, plus external risks from China's slowdown and U.S. election trade policies. Key catalysts: Q3 GDP data on November 17 and December BOJ meeting.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$7结束日期
May 19, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show a razor-thin consensus for Japan Q1 2026 GDP growth, pricing 0.6–0.8% at a leading 35% implied probability amid closely bunched outcomes reflecting high uncertainty in the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy normalization. Recent BOJ minutes from the October 31 meeting reveal internal debate on further 25 basis point hikes, supported by September core CPI at 2.6% year-over-year and year-to-date real wage gains signaling consumption recovery potential, yet tempered by Q2's finalized 0.9% annualized growth masking sluggish household spending. Diverging factors include yen weakness boosting exports versus tightening's drag on capex, plus external risks from China's slowdown and U.S. election trade policies. Key catalysts: Q3 GDP data on November 17 and December BOJ meeting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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