Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 remains highly fragmented, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 31.5% implied probability amid ECB staff projections of 1.6% and European Commission estimates near 1.5%, closely trailed by improbable 7.0%+ (28.0%) and 6.0-7.0% (26.1%) outcomes reflecting speculative optimism. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expansion of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter—stronger than anticipated—alongside ECB's 25 basis point rate cut in October, supports baseline modest growth expectations, yet fiscal tightening in Germany and France, persistent services inflation above 4%, and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine introduce downside risks favoring lower bins like 0-1.0% (21.6%). Key differentiators include potential productivity boosts from digital investment versus energy shocks; watch ECB's December 12 policy meeting and January 2025 flash PMIs for sentiment pivots.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1.0-2.0% 52%
低于0% 23.5%
3.0-4.0% 22.0%
5.0-6.0% 20.3%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
低于0%
16%
0-1.0%
22%
1.0-2.0%
32%
2.0-3.0%
19%
3.0-4.0%
22%
4.0-5.0%
10%
5.0-6.0%
20%
6.0-7.0%
26%
7.0%及以上
30%
1.0-2.0% 52%
低于0% 23.5%
3.0-4.0% 22.0%
5.0-6.0% 20.3%
NEW
NEW
Jan 31, 2027
低于0%
$0 交易量
16%
0-1.0%
$0 交易量
22%
1.0-2.0%
$0 交易量
32%
2.0-3.0%
$0 交易量
19%
3.0-4.0%
$0 交易量
22%
4.0-5.0%
$1,306 交易量
10%
5.0-6.0%
$0 交易量
20%
6.0-7.0%
$0 交易量
26%
7.0%及以上
$0 交易量
30%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 remains highly fragmented, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 31.5% implied probability amid ECB staff projections of 1.6% and European Commission estimates near 1.5%, closely trailed by improbable 7.0%+ (28.0%) and 6.0-7.0% (26.1%) outcomes reflecting speculative optimism. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expansion of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter—stronger than anticipated—alongside ECB's 25 basis point rate cut in October, supports baseline modest growth expectations, yet fiscal tightening in Germany and France, persistent services inflation above 4%, and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine introduce downside risks favoring lower bins like 0-1.0% (21.6%). Key differentiators include potential productivity boosts from digital investment versus energy shocks; watch ECB's December 12 policy meeting and January 2025 flash PMIs for sentiment pivots.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$1,306结束日期
Jan 31, 2027市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 remains highly fragmented, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 31.5% implied probability amid ECB staff projections of 1.6% and European Commission estimates near 1.5%, closely trailed by improbable 7.0%+ (28.0%) and 6.0-7.0% (26.1%) outcomes reflecting speculative optimism. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expansion of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter—stronger than anticipated—alongside ECB's 25 basis point rate cut in October, supports baseline modest growth expectations, yet fiscal tightening in Germany and France, persistent services inflation above 4%, and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine introduce downside risks favoring lower bins like 0-1.0% (21.6%). Key differentiators include potential productivity boosts from digital investment versus energy shocks; watch ECB's December 12 policy meeting and January 2025 flash PMIs for sentiment pivots.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$1,306结束日期
Jan 31, 2027市场开放时间
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Eurozone annual GDP growth for 2026 remains highly fragmented, with the 1.0-2.0% bin leading at 31.5% implied probability amid ECB staff projections of 1.6% and European Commission estimates near 1.5%, closely trailed by improbable 7.0%+ (28.0%) and 6.0-7.0% (26.1%) outcomes reflecting speculative optimism. Recent Q3 2024 GDP expansion of 0.3% quarter-on-quarter—stronger than anticipated—alongside ECB's 25 basis point rate cut in October, supports baseline modest growth expectations, yet fiscal tightening in Germany and France, persistent services inflation above 4%, and geopolitical tensions in Ukraine introduce downside risks favoring lower bins like 0-1.0% (21.6%). Key differentiators include potential productivity boosts from digital investment versus energy shocks; watch ECB's December 12 policy meeting and January 2025 flash PMIs for sentiment pivots.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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