Polymarket traders price a 46.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, with 32.2% for 0.3-0.6%, reflecting January's flat 0.0% monthly print from the Office for National Statistics that undershot Bank of England expectations of 0.3% quarterly expansion. This stall follows decelerating momentum from late 2025, compounded by unemployment rising to 5.2% in the November-January period and March flash composite PMI dipping to 51.0, signaling subdued activity amid higher energy costs from Middle East tensions. OBR's March forecast downgrades full-year 2026 growth to 1.1%, tempering optimism; February GDP data and Q1 flash estimate in late April loom as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0.0-0.3% 40%
0.3-0.6% 28.4%
0.6-0.9% 23.9%
负数 7%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
负数
7%
0.0-0.3%
47%
0.3-0.6%
28%
0.6-0.9%
24%
0.9-1.2%
16%
1.2-1.5%
1%
1.5-1.8%
1%
1.8%以上
3%
0.0-0.3% 40%
0.3-0.6% 28.4%
0.6-0.9% 23.9%
负数 7%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
负数
$0 交易量
7%
0.0-0.3%
$8,738 交易量
47%
0.3-0.6%
$450 交易量
28%
0.6-0.9%
$0 交易量
24%
0.9-1.2%
$0 交易量
16%
1.2-1.5%
$0 交易量
1%
1.5-1.8%
$0 交易量
1%
1.8%以上
$690 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 46.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, with 32.2% for 0.3-0.6%, reflecting January's flat 0.0% monthly print from the Office for National Statistics that undershot Bank of England expectations of 0.3% quarterly expansion. This stall follows decelerating momentum from late 2025, compounded by unemployment rising to 5.2% in the November-January period and March flash composite PMI dipping to 51.0, signaling subdued activity amid higher energy costs from Middle East tensions. OBR's March forecast downgrades full-year 2026 growth to 1.1%, tempering optimism; February GDP data and Q1 flash estimate in late April loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$9,878结束日期
May 14, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 46.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, with 32.2% for 0.3-0.6%, reflecting January's flat 0.0% monthly print from the Office for National Statistics that undershot Bank of England expectations of 0.3% quarterly expansion. This stall follows decelerating momentum from late 2025, compounded by unemployment rising to 5.2% in the November-January period and March flash composite PMI dipping to 51.0, signaling subdued activity amid higher energy costs from Middle East tensions. OBR's March forecast downgrades full-year 2026 growth to 1.1%, tempering optimism; February GDP data and Q1 flash estimate in late April loom as key catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,878结束日期
May 14, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 46.5% implied probability for UK Q1 2026 GDP growth of 0.0-0.3%, with 32.2% for 0.3-0.6%, reflecting January's flat 0.0% monthly print from the Office for National Statistics that undershot Bank of England expectations of 0.3% quarterly expansion. This stall follows decelerating momentum from late 2025, compounded by unemployment rising to 5.2% in the November-January period and March flash composite PMI dipping to 51.0, signaling subdued activity amid higher energy costs from Middle East tensions. OBR's March forecast downgrades full-year 2026 growth to 1.1%, tempering optimism; February GDP data and Q1 flash estimate in late April loom as key catalysts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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