Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47% implied probability to UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% in Q1 2026, driven by Q3 2024's subdued 0.4% quarter-on-quarter expansion—below economist forecasts—and October's flat monthly output amid services sector weakness. The Labour government's October 30 budget, with employer National Insurance contributions rising by 1.2 percentage points to 15%, introduces significant fiscal drag on business investment and hiring, reinforcing sub-0.6% growth pricing across the top outcomes (74.7% combined). Bank of England minutes from the November meeting revealed a split MPC favoring gradual 25-basis-point cuts from 4.75%, tempered by persistent wage pressures. Key catalysts include January's Q4 GDP release and the December 19 policy decision.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0.0-0.3% 40%
0.3-0.6% 29.3%
0.6-0.9% 23.9%
0.9-1.2% 18.4%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
负数
7%
0.0-0.3%
47%
0.3-0.6%
29%
0.6-0.9%
24%
0.9-1.2%
18%
1.2-1.5%
1%
1.5-1.8%
1%
1.8%以上
3%
0.0-0.3% 40%
0.3-0.6% 29.3%
0.6-0.9% 23.9%
0.9-1.2% 18.4%
NEW
NEW
May 14, 2026
负数
$0 交易量
7%
0.0-0.3%
$8,738 交易量
47%
0.3-0.6%
$450 交易量
29%
0.6-0.9%
$0 交易量
24%
0.9-1.2%
$0 交易量
18%
1.2-1.5%
$0 交易量
1%
1.5-1.8%
$0 交易量
1%
1.8%以上
$0 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47% implied probability to UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% in Q1 2026, driven by Q3 2024's subdued 0.4% quarter-on-quarter expansion—below economist forecasts—and October's flat monthly output amid services sector weakness. The Labour government's October 30 budget, with employer National Insurance contributions rising by 1.2 percentage points to 15%, introduces significant fiscal drag on business investment and hiring, reinforcing sub-0.6% growth pricing across the top outcomes (74.7% combined). Bank of England minutes from the November meeting revealed a split MPC favoring gradual 25-basis-point cuts from 4.75%, tempered by persistent wage pressures. Key catalysts include January's Q4 GDP release and the December 19 policy decision.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
交易量
$9,188结束日期
May 14, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47% implied probability to UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% in Q1 2026, driven by Q3 2024's subdued 0.4% quarter-on-quarter expansion—below economist forecasts—and October's flat monthly output amid services sector weakness. The Labour government's October 30 budget, with employer National Insurance contributions rising by 1.2 percentage points to 15%, introduces significant fiscal drag on business investment and hiring, reinforcing sub-0.6% growth pricing across the top outcomes (74.7% combined). Bank of England minutes from the November meeting revealed a split MPC favoring gradual 25-basis-point cuts from 4.75%, tempered by persistent wage pressures. Key catalysts include January's Q4 GDP release and the December 19 policy decision.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$9,188结束日期
May 14, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 47% implied probability to UK GDP growth of 0.0-0.3% in Q1 2026, driven by Q3 2024's subdued 0.4% quarter-on-quarter expansion—below economist forecasts—and October's flat monthly output amid services sector weakness. The Labour government's October 30 budget, with employer National Insurance contributions rising by 1.2 percentage points to 15%, introduces significant fiscal drag on business investment and hiring, reinforcing sub-0.6% growth pricing across the top outcomes (74.7% combined). Bank of England minutes from the November meeting revealed a split MPC favoring gradual 25-basis-point cuts from 4.75%, tempered by persistent wage pressures. Key catalysts include January's Q4 GDP release and the December 19 policy decision.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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