Polymarket traders display fragmented sentiment on Eurozone 2026 annual HICP inflation, with implied probabilities tightly clustered: 1.0–1.2% at 36.4%, 2.2–2.4% at 35.3%, and nearby bins above 30%, underscoring uncertainty in the post-peak disinflation trajectory. October headline inflation ticked up to 2.0% year-over-year from September's 1.8%, propelled by an energy rebound that masked a dip in core measures to 2.7%, fueling debate on whether demand weakness and ECB easing—now at 3.25% deposit rate after 100 basis points of cuts—drive sub-2% outcomes or if resilient wages (around 4%) and services inflation sustain higher readings near the 2% target. Key swing factors include November CPI data due December 2 and ECB's December 12 policy meeting, alongside volatile energy prices and Q4 GDP momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1.6–1.8% 31.1%
2.8-3.0% 31.0%
3.1%及以上 23.5%
1.3–1.5% 21.7%
低于1.0%
17%
1.0–1.2%
36%
1.3–1.5%
22%
1.6–1.8%
31%
1.9–2.1%
17%
2.2–2.4%
35%
2.5–2.7%
17%
2.8-3.0%
31%
3.1%及以上
29%
1.6–1.8% 31.1%
2.8-3.0% 31.0%
3.1%及以上 23.5%
1.3–1.5% 21.7%
低于1.0%
17%
1.0–1.2%
36%
1.3–1.5%
22%
1.6–1.8%
31%
1.9–2.1%
17%
2.2–2.4%
35%
2.5–2.7%
17%
2.8-3.0%
31%
3.1%及以上
29%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly Eurostat report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Eurostat Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 19, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report on the Eurostat website (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/) by selecting the "Database" option from the "Data" dropdown, opening the "Data navigation tree" folder, then the "Economy and finance" folder, then the "Prices (prc)" folder, then the "Harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) (prc_hicp)" folder, and opening the file named "HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change) (prc_hicp_manr)". The relevant figure can be found in the column for the relevant month in the row marked "Euro area - 20 countries (from 2023)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Eurostat HICP news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/release-calendar or https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/statscal/ges/html/sthicp.en.html
市场开放时间: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders display fragmented sentiment on Eurozone 2026 annual HICP inflation, with implied probabilities tightly clustered: 1.0–1.2% at 36.4%, 2.2–2.4% at 35.3%, and nearby bins above 30%, underscoring uncertainty in the post-peak disinflation trajectory. October headline inflation ticked up to 2.0% year-over-year from September's 1.8%, propelled by an energy rebound that masked a dip in core measures to 2.7%, fueling debate on whether demand weakness and ECB easing—now at 3.25% deposit rate after 100 basis points of cuts—drive sub-2% outcomes or if resilient wages (around 4%) and services inflation sustain higher readings near the 2% target. Key swing factors include November CPI data due December 2 and ECB's December 12 policy meeting, alongside volatile energy prices and Q4 GDP momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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