Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payroll rebound at 30.5% implied probability for 100k+ jobs added, narrowly ahead of 50k-100k (22.5%) and 0-50k (22.0%), reflecting tight competition amid uncertainty following February's shocking -92,000 payroll decline—far below 50k-60k expectations—and unemployment rate rise to 4.4%. Economists' FactSet consensus hovers at +57k, with some like Capital Economics eyeing 125k on weather and strike distortions in February data, while stable initial jobless claims around 210k and rising job openings to 7 million suggest labor market resilience. Key swing factors include potential revisions and sector breakdowns in the Bureau of Labor Statistics release due early April, influencing Federal Reserve rate cut odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于10万+ 31%
5万 – 10万 23%
0 – 5万 22%
-5万–0 12%
$17,145 交易量
$17,145 交易量
<-15万
3%
-15万 – -10万
4%
-10万 – -5万
3%
-5万–0
12%
0 – 5万
22%
5万 – 10万
23%
10万+
31%
10万+ 31%
5万 – 10万 23%
0 – 5万 22%
-5万–0 12%
$17,145 交易量
$17,145 交易量
<-15万
3%
-15万 – -10万
4%
-10万 – -5万
3%
-5万–0
12%
0 – 5万
22%
5万 – 10万
23%
10万+
31%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payroll rebound at 30.5% implied probability for 100k+ jobs added, narrowly ahead of 50k-100k (22.5%) and 0-50k (22.0%), reflecting tight competition amid uncertainty following February's shocking -92,000 payroll decline—far below 50k-60k expectations—and unemployment rate rise to 4.4%. Economists' FactSet consensus hovers at +57k, with some like Capital Economics eyeing 125k on weather and strike distortions in February data, while stable initial jobless claims around 210k and rising job openings to 7 million suggest labor market resilience. Key swing factors include potential revisions and sector breakdowns in the Bureau of Labor Statistics release due early April, influencing Federal Reserve rate cut odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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