Trader sentiment on DeepSeek V4's release hinges on recent internal confirmation from founder Liang Wenfeng on April 10, signaling a late April 2026 rollout after months of delays from Huawei Ascend 910B hardware failures during training. This Chinese AI lab's anticipated trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts (MoE) model, with 37 billion active parameters, 1 million-token context, native multimodality, and optimizations for domestic chips amid U.S. export controls, positions it to challenge Western frontiers like GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 at 1/70th the inference cost. No official announcement or public availability yet, but web previews and leaked benchmarks (e.g., 99.4% on AIME 2026 math) fuel optimism; watch for imminent weights release and open-source deployment that could reshape open AI competition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,305,075 交易量
2026-04-30
4月30日
83%
5月15日
88%
$1,305,075 交易量
4月30日
$142,762 交易量
83%
5月15日
$46,225 交易量
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by May 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 21, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 7, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on DeepSeek V4's release hinges on recent internal confirmation from founder Liang Wenfeng on April 10, signaling a late April 2026 rollout after months of delays from Huawei Ascend 910B hardware failures during training. This Chinese AI lab's anticipated trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts (MoE) model, with 37 billion active parameters, 1 million-token context, native multimodality, and optimizations for domestic chips amid U.S. export controls, positions it to challenge Western frontiers like GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 at 1/70th the inference cost. No official announcement or public availability yet, but web previews and leaked benchmarks (e.g., 99.4% on AIME 2026 math) fuel optimism; watch for imminent weights release and open-source deployment that could reshape open AI competition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 30, 2026, 6:27 PM ET
交易量
$1,305,075结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by May 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by January 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 21, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 7, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 15, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on DeepSeek V4's release hinges on recent internal confirmation from founder Liang Wenfeng on April 10, signaling a late April 2026 rollout after months of delays from Huawei Ascend 910B hardware failures during training. This Chinese AI lab's anticipated trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts (MoE) model, with 37 billion active parameters, 1 million-token context, native multimodality, and optimizations for domestic chips amid U.S. export controls, positions it to challenge Western frontiers like GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 at 1/70th the inference cost. No official announcement or public availability yet, but web previews and leaked benchmarks (e.g., 99.4% on AIME 2026 math) fuel optimism; watch for imminent weights release and open-source deployment that could reshape open AI competition.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next DeepSeek V model is made available to the general public by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Intermediate versions (e.g., DeepSeek-V3.5) will not count; however, versions such as DeepSeek V4 or V5 would count.
The "next DeepSeek V model" refers to the next major release in the DeepSeek V series, explicitly named as such or clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3.
Only releases representing a core version progression in the DeepSeek V series, “clearly positioned as a successor to DeepSeek-V3,” will qualify. Other models, such as derivative models (e.g., "V4-Lite," "V4-Mini"), task-specialized models, R-series reasoning models, and experimental or preview releases (e.g., "V4-Exp," "V4-Preview"), that are not positioned as the new V flagship model, will not qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the next DeepSeek V model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by DeepSeek as being accessible to the general public.
If a qualifying model is made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled with the relevant version name within the company’s official website, this will qualify as “publicly announced”. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public under the rules will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from DeepSeek, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,305,075结束日期
2026-04-15市场开放时间
Mar 30, 2026, 6:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on DeepSeek V4's release hinges on recent internal confirmation from founder Liang Wenfeng on April 10, signaling a late April 2026 rollout after months of delays from Huawei Ascend 910B hardware failures during training. This Chinese AI lab's anticipated trillion-parameter mixture-of-experts (MoE) model, with 37 billion active parameters, 1 million-token context, native multimodality, and optimizations for domestic chips amid U.S. export controls, positions it to challenge Western frontiers like GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 at 1/70th the inference cost. No official announcement or public availability yet, but web previews and leaked benchmarks (e.g., 99.4% on AIME 2026 math) fuel optimism; watch for imminent weights release and open-source deployment that could reshape open AI competition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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