Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于April 14 48%
April 30 47%
April 18 46%
April 13 45%
最新
最新
2026-04-30
April 10
39%
April 11
21%
April 12
43%
April 13
45%
April 14
48%
April 15
40%
April 16
45%
April 17
41%
April 18
46%
April 19
42%
April 20
41%
April 21
44%
April 22
42%
April 23
42%
April 24
44%
April 25
40%
April 26
41%
April 27
40%
April 28
41%
April 29
43%
April 30
47%
No release by April 30
44%
April 14 48%
April 30 47%
April 18 46%
April 13 45%
最新
最新
2026-04-30
April 10
$19 交易量
39%
April 11
$0 交易量
21%
April 12
$0 交易量
43%
April 13
$0 交易量
45%
April 14
$5 交易量
48%
April 15
$0 交易量
40%
April 16
$0 交易量
45%
April 17
$0 交易量
41%
April 18
$0 交易量
46%
April 19
$0 交易量
42%
April 20
$0 交易量
41%
April 21
$0 交易量
44%
April 22
$0 交易量
42%
April 23
$0 交易量
42%
April 24
$0 交易量
44%
April 25
$0 交易量
40%
April 26
$0 交易量
41%
April 27
$0 交易量
40%
April 28
$0 交易量
41%
April 29
$0 交易量
43%
April 30
$0 交易量
47%
No release by April 30
$1 交易量
44%
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ET
交易量
$2,157结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
This market will resolve according to the date on which OpenAI's GPT-5.5 model is made available to the general public (ET).
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.5, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.4, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.6, GPT-5.7, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,157结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 9, 2026, 5:15 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects intense uncertainty around OpenAI's next large language model release, with mid-April dates like April 18 (47%) and several others at 46.5% implying a narrow window driven by recent Axios reporting on April 9 about a staggered rollout of an advanced cybersecurity-capable model—codenamed "Spud" and possibly GPT-5.5—to select companies only, echoing Anthropic's limited Claude 5 Mythos debut amid misuse fears. This tempers optimism from leaks of completed pretraining, Sam Altman's March 24 "few weeks" timeline, and OpenAI's monthly cadence since GPT-5's August 2025 launch through GPT-5.4. Competitive pressure from rivals like DeepSeek-V4 accelerates urgency, but public availability, exact versioning, and benchmarks remain key swing factors as pricing tweaks signal imminent announcements.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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