Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking variant commands the #1 position on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard—with Style Control enabled—at an Elo score of 1503, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1492 Elo) by 11 points and occupying the top three spots overall with its Opus 4.6 and 4.7 siblings. This trader consensus, implying an 83% probability for Anthropic by May 31, stems from the mid-April release of Opus 4.7, which surged ahead in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-Bench, solidifying its competitive edge amid a crowded large language model landscape. Google's 14% reflects optimism for Gemini updates, but no confirmed launches loom before resolution; surprise announcements from OpenAI or others remain low-probability risks in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 83%
Google 14%
OpenAI 1.3%
Meta <1%
$373,093 交易量
$373,093 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
83%
14%
OpenAI
1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 83%
Google 14%
OpenAI 1.3%
Meta <1%
$373,093 交易量
$373,093 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$36,028 交易量
83%
$30,367 交易量
14%
OpenAI
$22,569 交易量
1%
Meta
$24,487 交易量
<1%
xAI
$22,650 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$24,221 交易量
<1%
Baidu
$34,087 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$20,278 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$32,814 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$15,437 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$18,255 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$22,330 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$18,254 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$27,297 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$24,018 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking variant commands the #1 position on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard—with Style Control enabled—at an Elo score of 1503, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1492 Elo) by 11 points and occupying the top three spots overall with its Opus 4.6 and 4.7 siblings. This trader consensus, implying an 83% probability for Anthropic by May 31, stems from the mid-April release of Opus 4.7, which surged ahead in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-Bench, solidifying its competitive edge amid a crowded large language model landscape. Google's 14% reflects optimism for Gemini updates, but no confirmed launches loom before resolution; surprise announcements from OpenAI or others remain low-probability risks in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$373,093结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking variant commands the #1 position on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard—with Style Control enabled—at an Elo score of 1503, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1492 Elo) by 11 points and occupying the top three spots overall with its Opus 4.6 and 4.7 siblings. This trader consensus, implying an 83% probability for Anthropic by May 31, stems from the mid-April release of Opus 4.7, which surged ahead in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-Bench, solidifying its competitive edge amid a crowded large language model landscape. Google's 14% reflects optimism for Gemini updates, but no confirmed launches loom before resolution; surprise announcements from OpenAI or others remain low-probability risks in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$373,093结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.7 Thinking variant commands the #1 position on the LMArena Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard—with Style Control enabled—at an Elo score of 1503, outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1492 Elo) by 11 points and occupying the top three spots overall with its Opus 4.6 and 4.7 siblings. This trader consensus, implying an 83% probability for Anthropic by May 31, stems from the mid-April release of Opus 4.7, which surged ahead in agentic coding and reasoning benchmarks like SWE-Bench, solidifying its competitive edge amid a crowded large language model landscape. Google's 14% reflects optimism for Gemini updates, but no confirmed launches loom before resolution; surprise announcements from OpenAI or others remain low-probability risks in this skin-in-the-game forecast.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题