Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward Anthropic at 51.5% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of May 2026, edging Google at 45%, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating LMSYS Arena's Code leaderboard—topping agentic coding tasks like React and HTML by wide margins—and securing four Claude variants in the top five overall. Google's Gemini 3.1 series, bolstered by the May 7 Flash Lite update, excels in ecosystem integration for search and multimodal tasks but lags in raw benchmark leadership amid OpenAI's presumed top-two hold with GPT-5.x. Key differentiators include Anthropic's rapid iteration and multi-model strategy versus Google's scale advantages; watch Google I/O for potential shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 52%
Google 45%
OpenAI 1.9%
xAI 1.9%
$84,356 交易量
$84,356 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
52%
45%
OpenAI
2%
xAI
2%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meta
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meituan
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Anthropic 52%
Google 45%
OpenAI 1.9%
xAI 1.9%
$84,356 交易量
$84,356 交易量
2026-05-31
Anthropic
$13,719 交易量
52%
$8,181 交易量
45%
OpenAI
$6,912 交易量
2%
xAI
$6,650 交易量
2%
Baidu
$4,572 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$3,739 交易量
<1%
Meta
$5,432 交易量
<1%
ByteDance
$6,163 交易量
<1%
Alibaba
$5,169 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$4,190 交易量
<1%
Microsoft
$3,537 交易量
<1%
Meituan
$2,475 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$6,695 交易量
<1%
Amazon
$2,361 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$4,562 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward Anthropic at 51.5% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of May 2026, edging Google at 45%, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating LMSYS Arena's Code leaderboard—topping agentic coding tasks like React and HTML by wide margins—and securing four Claude variants in the top five overall. Google's Gemini 3.1 series, bolstered by the May 7 Flash Lite update, excels in ecosystem integration for search and multimodal tasks but lags in raw benchmark leadership amid OpenAI's presumed top-two hold with GPT-5.x. Key differentiators include Anthropic's rapid iteration and multi-model strategy versus Google's scale advantages; watch Google I/O for potential shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
交易量
$84,356结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward Anthropic at 51.5% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of May 2026, edging Google at 45%, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating LMSYS Arena's Code leaderboard—topping agentic coding tasks like React and HTML by wide margins—and securing four Claude variants in the top five overall. Google's Gemini 3.1 series, bolstered by the May 7 Flash Lite update, excels in ecosystem integration for search and multimodal tasks but lags in raw benchmark leadership amid OpenAI's presumed top-two hold with GPT-5.x. Key differentiators include Anthropic's rapid iteration and multi-model strategy versus Google's scale advantages; watch Google I/O for potential shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the third-highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$84,356结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts slightly toward Anthropic at 51.5% implied probability for the third-best AI model by end of May 2026, edging Google at 45%, driven by Claude Opus 4.7's April 16 release dominating LMSYS Arena's Code leaderboard—topping agentic coding tasks like React and HTML by wide margins—and securing four Claude variants in the top five overall. Google's Gemini 3.1 series, bolstered by the May 7 Flash Lite update, excels in ecosystem integration for search and multimodal tasks but lags in raw benchmark leadership amid OpenAI's presumed top-two hold with GPT-5.x. Key differentiators include Anthropic's rapid iteration and multi-model strategy versus Google's scale advantages; watch Google I/O for potential shifts before resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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