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科技·Claude 5

人类克劳德在6月30日之前在人类的最后一次考试中得分？

Market icon
科技·Claude 5

人类克劳德在6月30日之前在人类的最后一次考试中得分？

$187,336 交易量

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$187,336 交易量

Polymarket

35%+

$66,559 交易量

94%

45%以上

$75,998 交易量

49%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, leads trader consensus with low single-digit scores on Humanity’s Last Exam—a rigorous benchmark of 1,000+ expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities designed by the Center for AI Safety to probe frontier AI capabilities toward AGI. Current public evaluations show Claude 3.5 Sonnet at around 4-5%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview (8.2%), reflecting the exam's extreme difficulty where no large language model exceeds 10%. With the June 30 deadline days away, no new Claude iteration has been announced, dampening odds for a breakthrough; traders eye potential last-minute evaluations or unreported internal progress, though historical benchmark timelines suggest limited upside absent a surprise model drop. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google intensifies focus on reasoning advancements.

Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, leads trader consensus with low single-digit scores on Humanity’s Last Exam—a rigorous benchmark of 1,000+ expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities designed by the Center for AI Safety to probe frontier AI capabilities toward AGI. Current public evaluations show Claude 3.5 Sonnet at around 4-5%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview (8.2%), reflecting the exam's extreme difficulty where no large language model exceeds 10%. With the June 30 deadline days away, no new Claude iteration has been announced, dampening odds for a breakthrough; traders eye potential last-minute evaluations or unreported internal progress, though historical benchmark timelines suggest limited upside absent a surprise model drop. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google intensifies focus on reasoning advancements.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, leads trader consensus with low single-digit scores on Humanity’s Last Exam—a rigorous benchmark of 1,000+ expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities designed by the Center for AI Safety to probe frontier AI capabilities toward AGI. Current public evaluations show Claude 3.5 Sonnet at around 4-5%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview (8.2%), reflecting the exam's extreme difficulty where no large language model exceeds 10%. With the June 30 deadline days away, no new Claude iteration has been announced, dampening odds for a breakthrough; traders eye potential last-minute evaluations or unreported internal progress, though historical benchmark timelines suggest limited upside absent a surprise model drop. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google intensifies focus on reasoning advancements.

Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet, released June 20, leads trader consensus with low single-digit scores on Humanity’s Last Exam—a rigorous benchmark of 1,000+ expert-level questions across math, science, and humanities designed by the Center for AI Safety to probe frontier AI capabilities toward AGI. Current public evaluations show Claude 3.5 Sonnet at around 4-5%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview (8.2%), reflecting the exam's extreme difficulty where no large language model exceeds 10%. With the June 30 deadline days away, no new Claude iteration has been announced, dampening odds for a breakthrough; traders eye potential last-minute evaluations or unreported internal progress, though historical benchmark timelines suggest limited upside absent a surprise model drop. Competitive pressure from OpenAI and Google intensifies focus on reasoning advancements.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"人类克劳德在6月30日之前在人类的最后一次考试中得分？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 3 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"30%+"，概率为 100%，其次是"35%+"，概率为 94%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 100¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 100%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"人类克劳德在6月30日之前在人类的最后一次考试中得分？"已产生 $187.3K 的总交易量（自Jan 30, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"人类克劳德在6月30日之前在人类的最后一次考试中得分？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 3 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"人类克劳德在6月30日之前在人类的最后一次考试中得分？"的当前领先者是"30%+"，概率为 100%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 100%。紧随其后的结果是"35%+"，概率为 94%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"人类克劳德在6月30日之前在人类的最后一次考试中得分？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。