OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has repeatedly stated that the company will not pursue an IPO in 2026, prioritizing AI safety and alignment work amid rapid model advances instead of rushing to public markets. This stance has solidified trader consensus around Anthropic listing first, as the Claude developer advances its confidential filing with active preparations for a November 2026 debut at a potential $2 trillion valuation. Anthropic's recent prospectus disclosures and revenue trajectory further support its near-term timeline. While the 95.3% implied probability reflects this clear divergence, unexpected regulatory hurdles, market volatility, or a sudden safety resolution at OpenAI could still shift outcomes before either company reaches the Nasdaq.