Trader sentiment on Anthropic's Claude achieving a competitive score on the FrontierMath benchmark—comprising 407 extremely difficult, olympiad-level math problems—by June 30 leans cautious, primarily due to Claude 3.5 Sonnet's current pass@1 score of just 0.7%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview at 2.9% and Google's Gemini 2.0 Experimental at 1.5%. Without announcements of Claude 4 or major scaling runs, traders doubt the rapid frontier math gains needed amid Anthropic's deliberate release cadence prioritizing safety over speed. Competitive pressure from OpenAI's math-focused o1 series intensifies skepticism, though potential previews at summer AI conferences could shift odds if demonstrating chained reasoning breakthroughs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$47,034 交易量
50%+
55%
$47,034 交易量
50%+
55%
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间: Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on Anthropic's Claude achieving a competitive score on the FrontierMath benchmark—comprising 407 extremely difficult, olympiad-level math problems—by June 30 leans cautious, primarily due to Claude 3.5 Sonnet's current pass@1 score of just 0.7%, trailing OpenAI's o1-preview at 2.9% and Google's Gemini 2.0 Experimental at 1.5%. Without announcements of Claude 4 or major scaling runs, traders doubt the rapid frontier math gains needed amid Anthropic's deliberate release cadence prioritizing safety over speed. Competitive pressure from OpenAI's math-focused o1 series intensifies skepticism, though potential previews at summer AI conferences could shift odds if demonstrating chained reasoning breakthroughs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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