Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 100.0%
谷歌 <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$1,067,526 交易量
$1,067,526 交易量
2026-03-31
谷歌
否
OpenAI
否
Z.ai
否
DeepSeek
否
Mistral
否
Anthropic
是
阿里巴巴
否
xAI
否
Moonshot
否
美团
否
Anthropic 100.0%
谷歌 <1%
OpenAI <1%
Z.ai <1%
$1,067,526 交易量
$1,067,526 交易量
2026-03-31
谷歌
$122,247 交易量
否
OpenAI
$127,790 交易量
否
Z.ai
$60,235 交易量
否
DeepSeek
$114,380 交易量
否
Mistral
$228,435 交易量
否
Anthropic
$73,618 交易量
是
阿里巴巴
$98,898 交易量
否
xAI
$73,571 交易量
否
Moonshot
$64,992 交易量
否
美团
$103,360 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
交易量
$1,067,526结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$1,067,526结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Dec 2, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Anthropic holding the top AI model as of March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6-thinking variant leading the LMArena text leaderboard in the Style Control On category with an Elo score of 1504—well ahead of the second-place Claude Opus 4.6 at 1500 and Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview at 1494. This positioning stems from Anthropic's aggressive March rollout, including Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, a 1M-token context window, and advanced features like voice mode and skills API, solidifying its edge in benchmarks for math, coding, and creative tasks amid fierce competition from OpenAI and Google. While dominant, a surprise competitor model release or leaderboard recount in the final hours could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the vote margin from over 13,000 battles.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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