Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in Baidu at a 100% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by end of April 2026, driven by the April 30 LMArena leaderboard update crowning its ERNIE 5.1 Preview as the top Chinese large language model with an Elo score of 1476—outpacing rivals like DeepSeek-V4-Pro despite the latter's recent launch. This edge stems from superior performance in legal, government, math, and business benchmarks, achieved with just 6% of typical compute and fewer parameters, underscoring Baidu's efficiency gains amid intensifying domestic competition from Alibaba's Qwen series and Xiaomi's MiMo agents. While resolution is imminent via Chatbot Arena rankings, a dramatic last-hour leaderboard reversal from a surprise model drop by ByteDance or Moonshot AI could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the fresh data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月底中国最佳人工智能公司？
4月底中国最佳人工智能公司？
百度 100.0%
阿里巴巴 <1%
美团 <1%
字节跳动 <1%
$583,017 交易量
$583,017 交易量
2026-04-30
阿里巴巴
否
美团
否
字节跳动
否
DeepSeek
否
百度
是
Z.ai
否
Moonshot
否
小米
否
百度 100.0%
阿里巴巴 <1%
美团 <1%
字节跳动 <1%
$583,017 交易量
$583,017 交易量
2026-04-30
阿里巴巴
$128,587 交易量
否
美团
$15,387 交易量
否
字节跳动
$41,318 交易量
否
DeepSeek
$130,741 交易量
否
百度
$67,791 交易量
是
Z.ai
$87,163 交易量
否
Moonshot
$52,977 交易量
否
小米
$59,053 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in Baidu at a 100% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by end of April 2026, driven by the April 30 LMArena leaderboard update crowning its ERNIE 5.1 Preview as the top Chinese large language model with an Elo score of 1476—outpacing rivals like DeepSeek-V4-Pro despite the latter's recent launch. This edge stems from superior performance in legal, government, math, and business benchmarks, achieved with just 6% of typical compute and fewer parameters, underscoring Baidu's efficiency gains amid intensifying domestic competition from Alibaba's Qwen series and Xiaomi's MiMo agents. While resolution is imminent via Chatbot Arena rankings, a dramatic last-hour leaderboard reversal from a surprise model drop by ByteDance or Moonshot AI could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the fresh data.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 2, 2026, 5:56 PM ET
交易量
$583,017结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in Baidu at a 100% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by end of April 2026, driven by the April 30 LMArena leaderboard update crowning its ERNIE 5.1 Preview as the top Chinese large language model with an Elo score of 1476—outpacing rivals like DeepSeek-V4-Pro despite the latter's recent launch. This edge stems from superior performance in legal, government, math, and business benchmarks, achieved with just 6% of typical compute and fewer parameters, underscoring Baidu's efficiency gains amid intensifying domestic competition from Alibaba's Qwen series and Xiaomi's MiMo agents. While resolution is imminent via Chatbot Arena rankings, a dramatic last-hour leaderboard reversal from a surprise model drop by ByteDance or Moonshot AI could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the fresh data.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on April 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$583,017结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 5:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in Baidu at a 100% implied probability as the best Chinese AI company by end of April 2026, driven by the April 30 LMArena leaderboard update crowning its ERNIE 5.1 Preview as the top Chinese large language model with an Elo score of 1476—outpacing rivals like DeepSeek-V4-Pro despite the latter's recent launch. This edge stems from superior performance in legal, government, math, and business benchmarks, achieved with just 6% of typical compute and fewer parameters, underscoring Baidu's efficiency gains amid intensifying domestic competition from Alibaba's Qwen series and Xiaomi's MiMo agents. While resolution is imminent via Chatbot Arena rankings, a dramatic last-hour leaderboard reversal from a surprise model drop by ByteDance or Moonshot AI could theoretically challenge it, though traders see negligible risk given the fresh data.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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