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Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

Market icon

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

最新
2026-12-31
Polymarket

$500 交易量

Polymarket

1560

$265 交易量

86%

1580

$35 交易量

60%

1600

$200 交易量

38%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking leads the Code Arena leaderboard at 1546 Elo as of early April 2026, dominating agentic coding tasks that demand multi-step reasoning, tool use, and building complex web apps through human-voted battles on Arena.ai. This positioning stems from its February release, which briefly hit 1576 before stabilizing amid intense competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (1457), Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1456), and fresh challengers like Alibaba's Qwen 3.6 Plus Preview, launched April 2 and debuting at #8 (1454 preliminary). Trader sentiment reflects accelerating progress in large language model coding capabilities, with Chinese labs closing the gap on U.S. frontrunners. Upcoming model drops from xAI, Meta, and others, plus agentic benchmarks like Codeforces wins by multi-agent systems, could drive breakthroughs by year-end, though scaling laws and evaluation saturation pose hurdles to dramatic jumps.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$500
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 Thinking leads the Code Arena leaderboard at 1546 Elo as of early April 2026, dominating agentic coding tasks that demand multi-step reasoning, tool use, and building complex web apps through human-voted battles on Arena.ai. This positioning stems from its February release, which briefly hit 1576 before stabilizing amid intense competition from OpenAI's GPT-5.4 High (1457), Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview (1456), and fresh challengers like Alibaba's Qwen 3.6 Plus Preview, launched April 2 and debuting at #8 (1454 preliminary). Trader sentiment reflects accelerating progress in large language model coding capabilities, with Chinese labs closing the gap on U.S. frontrunners. Upcoming model drops from xAI, Meta, and others, plus agentic benchmarks like Codeforces wins by multi-agent systems, could drive breakthroughs by year-end, though scaling laws and evaluation saturation pose hurdles to dramatic jumps.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$500
结束日期
2026-12-31
市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 3 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"1560",概率为 86%,其次是"1580",概率为 60%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 86¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 86%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Apr 2, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 3 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?"的当前领先者是"1560",概率为 86%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 86%。紧随其后的结果是"1580",概率为 60%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。