Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Emmanuel Grégoire at 84.5% implied probability to win the 2026 Paris mayoral election, reflecting his role as Socialist first deputy mayor under Anne Hidalgo and unchallenged party nomination in late 2023, positioning him as the continuity candidate in a left-leaning city. Recent polls from IFOP and Elabe in mid-2024 show him leading first-round support at 25-30%, bolstered by Hidalgo's endorsement and weak center-right competition amid fragmented fields. Rachida Dati's 15.5% odds stem from her Les Républicains momentum and Justice Minister visibility, though judicial constraints limit campaigning; Éric Grégoire's 33.0% appears tied to independent or allied right-wing buzz, while Sophia Chikirou's 0.1% underscores La France Insoumise's marginal Paris appeal. Upcoming primaries could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于埃马纽埃尔·格雷戈尔 85%
拉希达·达蒂 16%
索菲亚·奇基鲁 <1%
$21,853,141 交易量
$21,853,141 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
埃马纽埃尔·格雷戈尔
85%
拉希达·达蒂
16%
索菲亚·奇基鲁
<1%
埃马纽埃尔·格雷戈尔 85%
拉希达·达蒂 16%
索菲亚·奇基鲁 <1%
$21,853,141 交易量
$21,853,141 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
埃马纽埃尔·格雷戈尔
$1,017,644 交易量
85%
拉希达·达蒂
$1,180,067 交易量
16%
索菲亚·奇基鲁
$914,098 交易量
<1%
The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
市场开放时间： Oct 22, 2025, 7:49 PM ET
交易量
$21,853,141结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 22, 2025, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).The 2026 election for the Mayor of Paris is scheduled to take place in March.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Paris mayoral election to become the next elected Mayor of Paris.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).
交易量
$21,853,141结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Oct 22, 2025, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Emmanuel Grégoire at 84.5% implied probability to win the 2026 Paris mayoral election, reflecting his role as Socialist first deputy mayor under Anne Hidalgo and unchallenged party nomination in late 2023, positioning him as the continuity candidate in a left-leaning city. Recent polls from IFOP and Elabe in mid-2024 show him leading first-round support at 25-30%, bolstered by Hidalgo's endorsement and weak center-right competition amid fragmented fields. Rachida Dati's 15.5% odds stem from her Les Républicains momentum and Justice Minister visibility, though judicial constraints limit campaigning; Éric Grégoire's 33.0% appears tied to independent or allied right-wing buzz, while Sophia Chikirou's 0.1% underscores La France Insoumise's marginal Paris appeal. Upcoming primaries could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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