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政治·世界选举

统一俄罗斯将在下一次俄罗斯立法选举中赢得多少席位？

Market icon
政治·世界选举

统一俄罗斯将在下一次俄罗斯立法选举中赢得多少席位？

340–354 34%

355+ 32%

325–339 16%

310–324 12.3%

Polymarket
NEW

340–354 34%

355+ 32%

325–339 16%

310–324 12.3%

Polymarket
NEW

少于280

$0 交易量

4%

280–294

$0 交易量

3%

295–309

$0 交易量

6%

310–324

$0 交易量

12%

325–339

$222 交易量

16%

340–354

$240 交易量

34%

355+

$5,355 交易量

32%

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between United Russia securing 340–354 seats (34%) or 355+ (32.5%) in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting recent polls showing party list support at 29–41% per FOM and VCIOM surveys from mid-March, down slightly amid rising food and utility prices eroding voter sentiment. Despite this, the ruling party's dominance in single-member districts—historically yielding far more seats than proportional allocation—and Kremlin tactics like redistricting, expanded electronic voting, and propaganda highlighting social initiatives sustain expectations of a constitutional majority beyond its current 314 seats. The tight race persists due to economic headwinds versus administrative mobilization; separation could arise from campaign nominations led by Dmitry Medvedev, war developments, or stabilized inflation ahead of the vote.

Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between United Russia securing 340–354 seats (34%) or 355+ (32.5%) in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting recent polls showing party list support at 29–41% per FOM and VCIOM surveys from mid-March, down slightly amid rising food and utility prices eroding voter sentiment. Despite this, the ruling party's dominance in single-member districts—historically yielding far more seats than proportional allocation—and Kremlin tactics like redistricting, expanded electronic voting, and propaganda highlighting social initiatives sustain expectations of a constitutional majority beyond its current 314 seats. The tight race persists due to economic headwinds versus administrative mobilization; separation could arise from campaign nominations led by Dmitry Medvedev, war developments, or stabilized inflation ahead of the vote.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between United Russia securing 340–354 seats (34%) or 355+ (32.5%) in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting recent polls showing party list support at 29–41% per FOM and VCIOM surveys from mid-March, down slightly amid rising food and utility prices eroding voter sentiment. Despite this, the ruling party's dominance in single-member districts—historically yielding far more seats than proportional allocation—and Kremlin tactics like redistricting, expanded electronic voting, and propaganda highlighting social initiatives sustain expectations of a constitutional majority beyond its current 314 seats. The tight race persists due to economic headwinds versus administrative mobilization; separation could arise from campaign nominations led by Dmitry Medvedev, war developments, or stabilized inflation ahead of the vote.

Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between United Russia securing 340–354 seats (34%) or 355+ (32.5%) in the September 2026 State Duma elections, reflecting recent polls showing party list support at 29–41% per FOM and VCIOM surveys from mid-March, down slightly amid rising food and utility prices eroding voter sentiment. Despite this, the ruling party's dominance in single-member districts—historically yielding far more seats than proportional allocation—and Kremlin tactics like redistricting, expanded electronic voting, and propaganda highlighting social initiatives sustain expectations of a constitutional majority beyond its current 314 seats. The tight race persists due to economic headwinds versus administrative mobilization; separation could arise from campaign nominations led by Dmitry Medvedev, war developments, or stabilized inflation ahead of the vote.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"统一俄罗斯将在下一次俄罗斯立法选举中赢得多少席位？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 7 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"340–354"，概率为 34%，其次是"355+"，概率为 33%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 34¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 34%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"统一俄罗斯将在下一次俄罗斯立法选举中赢得多少席位？"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场，于Jan 7, 2026上线。作为一个新市场，这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签，以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"统一俄罗斯将在下一次俄罗斯立法选举中赢得多少席位？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 7 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"统一俄罗斯将在下一次俄罗斯立法选举中赢得多少席位？"的当前领先者是"340–354"，概率为 34%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 34%。紧随其后的结果是"355+"，概率为 33%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"统一俄罗斯将在下一次俄罗斯立法选举中赢得多少席位？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。