Recent opinion polls, including the Manorama News–C Voter survey projecting the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to secure 69–81 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly and a Mathrubhumi-CORE pre-poll analysis showing UDF edges in key constituencies, have propelled trader consensus toward a UDF victory ahead of the April 9 polling date. Incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), seeking a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, retains strength in northern districts but faces anti-incumbency over fiscal challenges and welfare delays, reflected in its 26% implied probability. Manifestos released this week highlight competing promises on pensions, health insurance, and infrastructure, while NDA remains marginal. With results due May 4, the closely contested race hinges on turnout in southern strongholds and minority voter shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于印度国民大会党（INC） 74%
CPI(M) 26%
广大社会党（BSP） <1%
印度共产党（CPI） <1%
$180,531 交易量
$180,531 交易量
2026-04-09
印度国民大会党（INC）
74%
CPI(M)
26%
广大社会党（BSP）
<1%
印度共产党（CPI）
<1%
贾纳塔党（世俗）
<1%
RSP
<1%
喀拉拉大会党（M）
<1%
印度人民党（BJP）
<1%
国民大会党
<1%
印度联盟穆斯林联盟（IUML）
<1%
印度国民大会党（INC） 74%
CPI(M) 26%
广大社会党（BSP） <1%
印度共产党（CPI） <1%
$180,531 交易量
$180,531 交易量
2026-04-09
印度国民大会党（INC）
$14,444 交易量
74%
CPI(M)
$13,801 交易量
26%
广大社会党（BSP）
$8,845 交易量
<1%
印度共产党（CPI）
$21,063 交易量
<1%
贾纳塔党（世俗）
$14,076 交易量
<1%
RSP
$7,442 交易量
<1%
喀拉拉大会党（M）
$7,907 交易量
<1%
印度人民党（BJP）
$44,776 交易量
<1%
国民大会党
$38,265 交易量
<1%
印度联盟穆斯林联盟（IUML）
$9,912 交易量
<1%
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Recent opinion polls, including the Manorama News–C Voter survey projecting the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to secure 69–81 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly and a Mathrubhumi-CORE pre-poll analysis showing UDF edges in key constituencies, have propelled trader consensus toward a UDF victory ahead of the April 9 polling date. Incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), seeking a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, retains strength in northern districts but faces anti-incumbency over fiscal challenges and welfare delays, reflected in its 26% implied probability. Manifestos released this week highlight competing promises on pensions, health insurance, and infrastructure, while NDA remains marginal. With results due May 4, the closely contested race hinges on turnout in southern strongholds and minority voter shifts.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ET
交易量
$180,531结束日期
2026-04-09市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).Recent opinion polls, including the Manorama News–C Voter survey projecting the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to secure 69–81 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly and a Mathrubhumi-CORE pre-poll analysis showing UDF edges in key constituencies, have propelled trader consensus toward a UDF victory ahead of the April 9 polling date. Incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), seeking a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, retains strength in northern districts but faces anti-incumbency over fiscal challenges and welfare delays, reflected in its 26% implied probability. Manifestos released this week highlight competing promises on pensions, health insurance, and infrastructure, while NDA remains marginal. With results due May 4, the closely contested race hinges on turnout in southern strongholds and minority voter shifts.
Legislative Assembly elections are to be scheduled to be held in Kerala, India, in March–May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Kerala Legislative Assembly in the 2026 election.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. If that also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Kerala Legislative Assembly.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Indian government, specifically the Election Commission of India (ECI) (https://eci.gov.in). If multiple official reports differ, this market will resolve based on the one that includes the greatest number of Assembly Constituencies (ACs).
交易量
$180,531结束日期
2026-04-09市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent opinion polls, including the Manorama News–C Voter survey projecting the INC-led United Democratic Front (UDF) to secure 69–81 seats in the 140-member Kerala Legislative Assembly and a Mathrubhumi-CORE pre-poll analysis showing UDF edges in key constituencies, have propelled trader consensus toward a UDF victory ahead of the April 9 polling date. Incumbent CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front (LDF), seeking a rare third term under Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, retains strength in northern districts but faces anti-incumbency over fiscal challenges and welfare delays, reflected in its 26% implied probability. Manifestos released this week highlight competing promises on pensions, health insurance, and infrastructure, while NDA remains marginal. With results due May 4, the closely contested race hinges on turnout in southern strongholds and minority voter shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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