Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Iván Cepeda Castro a 72.5% implied probability of topping the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, reflecting his consistent poll lead following the March 8 legislative elections and inter-party consultations, where his Pacto Histórico coalition secured the largest Senate bloc and he emerged as the left's nominee. Recent Guarumo-Ecoanalítica and GAD3 surveys show Cepeda at 31-36%, ahead of a fragmented right led by Paloma Valencia (19-22%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (17-22%), whose divided bases hinder consolidation. Narrowing gaps in the latest polls temper enthusiasm, but left momentum and opposition disunity position Cepeda favorably for the first-round plurality needed to advance to a June runoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗 73%
帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚 19.1%
阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉 4.5%
路易斯·吉尔伯托·穆里略 <1%
$1,738,654 交易量
$1,738,654 交易量
May 31, 2026
伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗
73%
帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚
19%
阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉
5%
路易斯·吉尔伯托·穆里略
1%
胡安·曼努埃尔·加兰
<1%
胡安·丹尼尔·奥维耶多
<1%
塞尔吉奥·法哈多
<1%
毛里西奥·卡尔德纳斯
<1%
维奇·达维拉
<1%
大卫·卢纳·桑切斯
<1%
古斯塔沃·博利瓦尔
<1%
胡安·卡洛斯·平松
<1%
罗伊·巴雷拉斯
<1%
丹尼尔·金特罗
<1%
克劳迪娅·洛佩斯
<1%
赫尔曼·巴尔加斯·耶拉斯
<1%
恩里克·佩尼亚洛萨
<1%
伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗 73%
帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚 19.1%
阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉 4.5%
路易斯·吉尔伯托·穆里略 <1%
$1,738,654 交易量
$1,738,654 交易量
May 31, 2026
伊万·塞佩达·卡斯特罗
$52,455 交易量
73%
帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚
$208,036 交易量
19%
阿贝拉多·德拉·埃斯普里埃拉
$467,139 交易量
5%
路易斯·吉尔伯托·穆里略
$93,629 交易量
1%
胡安·曼努埃尔·加兰
$67,333 交易量
<1%
胡安·丹尼尔·奥维耶多
$34,344 交易量
<1%
塞尔吉奥·法哈多
$49,753 交易量
<1%
毛里西奥·卡尔德纳斯
$22,756 交易量
<1%
维奇·达维拉
$236,099 交易量
<1%
大卫·卢纳·桑切斯
$149,171 交易量
<1%
古斯塔沃·博利瓦尔
$72,412 交易量
<1%
胡安·卡洛斯·平松
$36,908 交易量
<1%
罗伊·巴雷拉斯
$72,784 交易量
<1%
丹尼尔·金特罗
$21,558 交易量
<1%
克劳迪娅·洛佩斯
$51,776 交易量
<1%
赫尔曼·巴尔加斯·耶拉斯
$39,058 交易量
<1%
恩里克·佩尼亚洛萨
$26,941 交易量
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Iván Cepeda Castro a 72.5% implied probability of topping the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, reflecting his consistent poll lead following the March 8 legislative elections and inter-party consultations, where his Pacto Histórico coalition secured the largest Senate bloc and he emerged as the left's nominee. Recent Guarumo-Ecoanalítica and GAD3 surveys show Cepeda at 31-36%, ahead of a fragmented right led by Paloma Valencia (19-22%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (17-22%), whose divided bases hinder consolidation. Narrowing gaps in the latest polls temper enthusiasm, but left momentum and opposition disunity position Cepeda favorably for the first-round plurality needed to advance to a June runoff.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
市场开放时间： Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ET
交易量
$1,738,654结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co). Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Iván Cepeda Castro a 72.5% implied probability of topping the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, reflecting his consistent poll lead following the March 8 legislative elections and inter-party consultations, where his Pacto Histórico coalition secured the largest Senate bloc and he emerged as the left's nominee. Recent Guarumo-Ecoanalítica and GAD3 surveys show Cepeda at 31-36%, ahead of a fragmented right led by Paloma Valencia (19-22%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (17-22%), whose divided bases hinder consolidation. Narrowing gaps in the latest polls temper enthusiasm, but left momentum and opposition disunity position Cepeda favorably for the first-round plurality needed to advance to a June runoff.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting.
If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
交易量
$1,738,654结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 23, 2025, 4:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket gives Iván Cepeda Castro a 72.5% implied probability of topping the first round of Colombia's presidential election on May 31, 2026, reflecting his consistent poll lead following the March 8 legislative elections and inter-party consultations, where his Pacto Histórico coalition secured the largest Senate bloc and he emerged as the left's nominee. Recent Guarumo-Ecoanalítica and GAD3 surveys show Cepeda at 31-36%, ahead of a fragmented right led by Paloma Valencia (19-22%) and Abelardo de la Espriella (17-22%), whose divided bases hinder consolidation. Narrowing gaps in the latest polls temper enthusiasm, but left momentum and opposition disunity position Cepeda favorably for the first-round plurality needed to advance to a June runoff.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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