Recent polling averages showing Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 8–10 points, as in the April Emerson College survey among likely voters, have driven trader consensus to price a 2026 blue wave at 74% probability. President Trump's approval ratings hover in the low 40s—underwater amid 53% viewing recent Iran military action as a failure—exacerbating historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which has lost an average of 28 House seats since 1946. GOP concerns over Trump's campaign trail role and Democratic outperformance in early special elections signal potential net gains of 20+ House seats and competitive Senate races, though primaries through summer could alter momentum in battleground districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$43,195 交易量
$43,195 交易量
2026-11-30
是
$43,195 交易量
$43,195 交易量
2026-11-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfRecent polling averages showing Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 8–10 points, as in the April Emerson College survey among likely voters, have driven trader consensus to price a 2026 blue wave at 74% probability. President Trump's approval ratings hover in the low 40s—underwater amid 53% viewing recent Iran military action as a failure—exacerbating historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which has lost an average of 28 House seats since 1946. GOP concerns over Trump's campaign trail role and Democratic outperformance in early special elections signal potential net gains of 20+ House seats and competitive Senate races, though primaries through summer could alter momentum in battleground districts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
市场开放时间： Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
交易量
$43,195结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfRecent polling averages showing Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 8–10 points, as in the April Emerson College survey among likely voters, have driven trader consensus to price a 2026 blue wave at 74% probability. President Trump's approval ratings hover in the low 40s—underwater amid 53% viewing recent Iran military action as a failure—exacerbating historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which has lost an average of 28 House seats since 1946. GOP concerns over Trump's campaign trail role and Democratic outperformance in early special elections signal potential net gains of 20+ House seats and competitive Senate races, though primaries through summer could alter momentum in battleground districts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
交易量
$43,195结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages showing Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot by 8–10 points, as in the April Emerson College survey among likely voters, have driven trader consensus to price a 2026 blue wave at 74% probability. President Trump's approval ratings hover in the low 40s—underwater amid 53% viewing recent Iran military action as a failure—exacerbating historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which has lost an average of 28 House seats since 1946. GOP concerns over Trump's campaign trail role and Democratic outperformance in early special elections signal potential net gains of 20+ House seats and competitive Senate races, though primaries through summer could alter momentum in battleground districts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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