Recent generic congressional ballot polls, including Marist's showing Democrats leading Republicans 51%-40%, combined with Democratic flips of 28 state legislative seats and strong special election performances since President Trump's second inauguration, have driven trader consensus to price a 79% implied probability of a "blue wave" in November 2026 midterms. Trump's sinking approval ratings mirror his first-term trajectory before the 2018 House flip, amplifying historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which average 26 House seat losses. Ongoing primaries, starting March 4 in key states like Texas and North Carolina, signal continued Democratic momentum in battleground districts, though the Senate map structurally favors Republicans.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$27,700 交易量
$27,700 交易量
2026-11-30
是
$27,700 交易量
$27,700 交易量
2026-11-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfRecent generic congressional ballot polls, including Marist's showing Democrats leading Republicans 51%-40%, combined with Democratic flips of 28 state legislative seats and strong special election performances since President Trump's second inauguration, have driven trader consensus to price a 79% implied probability of a "blue wave" in November 2026 midterms. Trump's sinking approval ratings mirror his first-term trajectory before the 2018 House flip, amplifying historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which average 26 House seat losses. Ongoing primaries, starting March 4 in key states like Texas and North Carolina, signal continued Democratic momentum in battleground districts, though the Senate map structurally favors Republicans.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
市场开放时间： Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
交易量
$27,700结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfRecent generic congressional ballot polls, including Marist's showing Democrats leading Republicans 51%-40%, combined with Democratic flips of 28 state legislative seats and strong special election performances since President Trump's second inauguration, have driven trader consensus to price a 79% implied probability of a "blue wave" in November 2026 midterms. Trump's sinking approval ratings mirror his first-term trajectory before the 2018 House flip, amplifying historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which average 26 House seat losses. Ongoing primaries, starting March 4 in key states like Texas and North Carolina, signal continued Democratic momentum in battleground districts, though the Senate map structurally favors Republicans.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
交易量
$27,700结束日期
2026-11-30市场开放时间
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent generic congressional ballot polls, including Marist's showing Democrats leading Republicans 51%-40%, combined with Democratic flips of 28 state legislative seats and strong special election performances since President Trump's second inauguration, have driven trader consensus to price a 79% implied probability of a "blue wave" in November 2026 midterms. Trump's sinking approval ratings mirror his first-term trajectory before the 2018 House flip, amplifying historical midterm penalties for the president's party, which average 26 House seat losses. Ongoing primaries, starting March 4 in key states like Texas and North Carolina, signal continued Democratic momentum in battleground districts, though the Senate map structurally favors Republicans.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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