Incumbent Rep. Barry Loudermilk's February retirement opened Georgia's 11th Congressional District—a Safe Republican seat with R+12 Cook Partisan Voter Index—but trader consensus holds Republicans at 86.5% implied probability to retain it in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's consistent GOP dominance (Trump 61% in 2024) and weak Democratic field of two low-fundraising primary challengers. Qualifying closed March 6 with five Republicans entering the May 19 primary, where a likely runoff by June 16 could yield a unified nominee favored by historical base rates in deep-red districts. No public polling exists, but forecasters like Cook and Sabato rate it Solid Republican amid limited Democratic resources.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
87%
民主党
14%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
87%
民主党
$0 交易量
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Barry Loudermilk's February retirement opened Georgia's 11th Congressional District—a Safe Republican seat with R+12 Cook Partisan Voter Index—but trader consensus holds Republicans at 86.5% implied probability to retain it in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's consistent GOP dominance (Trump 61% in 2024) and weak Democratic field of two low-fundraising primary challengers. Qualifying closed March 6 with five Republicans entering the May 19 primary, where a likely runoff by June 16 could yield a unified nominee favored by historical base rates in deep-red districts. No public polling exists, but forecasters like Cook and Sabato rate it Solid Republican amid limited Democratic resources.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Barry Loudermilk's February retirement opened Georgia's 11th Congressional District—a Safe Republican seat with R+12 Cook Partisan Voter Index—but trader consensus holds Republicans at 86.5% implied probability to retain it in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's consistent GOP dominance (Trump 61% in 2024) and weak Democratic field of two low-fundraising primary challengers. Qualifying closed March 6 with five Republicans entering the May 19 primary, where a likely runoff by June 16 could yield a unified nominee favored by historical base rates in deep-red districts. No public polling exists, but forecasters like Cook and Sabato rate it Solid Republican amid limited Democratic resources.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Barry Loudermilk's February retirement opened Georgia's 11th Congressional District—a Safe Republican seat with R+12 Cook Partisan Voter Index—but trader consensus holds Republicans at 86.5% implied probability to retain it in the November 3 general election, reflecting the district's consistent GOP dominance (Trump 61% in 2024) and weak Democratic field of two low-fundraising primary challengers. Qualifying closed March 6 with five Republicans entering the May 19 primary, where a likely runoff by June 16 could yield a unified nominee favored by historical base rates in deep-red districts. No public polling exists, but forecasters like Cook and Sabato rate it Solid Republican amid limited Democratic resources.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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