The Republican Party's strong 85% implied probability in the TX-21 House race reflects trader consensus on the district's deep-red partisan lean, solidified by former MLB star Mark Teixeira's decisive victory in the March 3 Republican primary over a crowded field of 12 candidates, following incumbent Chip Roy's August 2025 announcement to vacate for the Texas attorney general race. Democrat Kristin Hook, who lost decisively to Roy in 2024, secured her party's nomination in a low-turnout primary, underscoring limited opposition strength in this Hill Country and San Antonio suburbs battleground. Absent major shifts like scandals or national midterm waves, the general election on November 3 favors the GOP nominee amid historical incumbency advantages and district voting patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
85%
民主党
12%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$7,644 交易量
85%
民主党
$0 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party's strong 85% implied probability in the TX-21 House race reflects trader consensus on the district's deep-red partisan lean, solidified by former MLB star Mark Teixeira's decisive victory in the March 3 Republican primary over a crowded field of 12 candidates, following incumbent Chip Roy's August 2025 announcement to vacate for the Texas attorney general race. Democrat Kristin Hook, who lost decisively to Roy in 2024, secured her party's nomination in a low-turnout primary, underscoring limited opposition strength in this Hill Country and San Antonio suburbs battleground. Absent major shifts like scandals or national midterm waves, the general election on November 3 favors the GOP nominee amid historical incumbency advantages and district voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$7,644结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican Party's strong 85% implied probability in the TX-21 House race reflects trader consensus on the district's deep-red partisan lean, solidified by former MLB star Mark Teixeira's decisive victory in the March 3 Republican primary over a crowded field of 12 candidates, following incumbent Chip Roy's August 2025 announcement to vacate for the Texas attorney general race. Democrat Kristin Hook, who lost decisively to Roy in 2024, secured her party's nomination in a low-turnout primary, underscoring limited opposition strength in this Hill Country and San Antonio suburbs battleground. Absent major shifts like scandals or national midterm waves, the general election on November 3 favors the GOP nominee amid historical incumbency advantages and district voting patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$7,644结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican Party's strong 85% implied probability in the TX-21 House race reflects trader consensus on the district's deep-red partisan lean, solidified by former MLB star Mark Teixeira's decisive victory in the March 3 Republican primary over a crowded field of 12 candidates, following incumbent Chip Roy's August 2025 announcement to vacate for the Texas attorney general race. Democrat Kristin Hook, who lost decisively to Roy in 2024, secured her party's nomination in a low-turnout primary, underscoring limited opposition strength in this Hill Country and San Antonio suburbs battleground. Absent major shifts like scandals or national midterm waves, the general election on November 3 favors the GOP nominee amid historical incumbency advantages and district voting patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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