Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff against Melissa Hernandez on August 18, 2026, reflecting her strong primary performance, Democratic Party endorsement, and established state Senate profile in the East Bay district. Hernandez trails at 16.4% after advancing as the second-place finisher in the June primary, where both Democrats outpaced Republican and other contenders. Recent developments include substantial outside spending from interest groups, public safety debates, and Wahab's formal complaints alleging election interference filed days before the vote. These factors have reinforced trader consensus around Wahab's frontrunner status in the low-turnout special election environment, though the short timeline leaves room for late shifts from campaign intensity or turnout patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
艾莎·瓦哈布
84%
梅利莎·埃尔南德斯
16%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
艾莎·瓦哈布
$5,710 交易量
84%
梅利莎·埃尔南德斯
$3,256 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff against Melissa Hernandez on August 18, 2026, reflecting her strong primary performance, Democratic Party endorsement, and established state Senate profile in the East Bay district. Hernandez trails at 16.4% after advancing as the second-place finisher in the June primary, where both Democrats outpaced Republican and other contenders. Recent developments include substantial outside spending from interest groups, public safety debates, and Wahab's formal complaints alleging election interference filed days before the vote. These factors have reinforced trader consensus around Wahab's frontrunner status in the low-turnout special election environment, though the short timeline leaves room for late shifts from campaign intensity or turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ET
交易量
$8,965结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff against Melissa Hernandez on August 18, 2026, reflecting her strong primary performance, Democratic Party endorsement, and established state Senate profile in the East Bay district. Hernandez trails at 16.4% after advancing as the second-place finisher in the June primary, where both Democrats outpaced Republican and other contenders. Recent developments include substantial outside spending from interest groups, public safety debates, and Wahab's formal complaints alleging election interference filed days before the vote. These factors have reinforced trader consensus around Wahab's frontrunner status in the low-turnout special election environment, though the short timeline leaves room for late shifts from campaign intensity or turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the individual who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$8,965结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jul 9, 2026, 10:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 84% implied probability in the CA-14 special election runoff against Melissa Hernandez on August 18, 2026, reflecting her strong primary performance, Democratic Party endorsement, and established state Senate profile in the East Bay district. Hernandez trails at 16.4% after advancing as the second-place finisher in the June primary, where both Democrats outpaced Republican and other contenders. Recent developments include substantial outside spending from interest groups, public safety debates, and Wahab's formal complaints alleging election interference filed days before the vote. These factors have reinforced trader consensus around Wahab's frontrunner status in the low-turnout special election environment, though the short timeline leaves room for late shifts from campaign intensity or turnout patterns.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题