Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino's strong incumbency in the R+6 leaning NY-02 district drives trader consensus toward a 66% implied probability for GOP victory, reflecting the South Shore Long Island seat's rightward shift—nearly 12 points between the 2020 and 2024 presidential races—and his 59.8% 2024 win margin. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican, bolstered by robust fundraising and no serious GOP primary challengers ahead of the June 23 primaries. Democrats face a contested primary with Patrick Halpin, Jess Murphy, and Garrett Petersen, lacking a clear frontrunner amid absent district-specific polling. The April 2 filing deadline looms as the next catalyst, while national midterm turnout patterns could influence battleground dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
66%
民主党
26%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$1,772 交易量
66%
民主党
$1,242 交易量
26%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino's strong incumbency in the R+6 leaning NY-02 district drives trader consensus toward a 66% implied probability for GOP victory, reflecting the South Shore Long Island seat's rightward shift—nearly 12 points between the 2020 and 2024 presidential races—and his 59.8% 2024 win margin. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican, bolstered by robust fundraising and no serious GOP primary challengers ahead of the June 23 primaries. Democrats face a contested primary with Patrick Halpin, Jess Murphy, and Garrett Petersen, lacking a clear frontrunner amid absent district-specific polling. The April 2 filing deadline looms as the next catalyst, while national midterm turnout patterns could influence battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
交易量
$3,014结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino's strong incumbency in the R+6 leaning NY-02 district drives trader consensus toward a 66% implied probability for GOP victory, reflecting the South Shore Long Island seat's rightward shift—nearly 12 points between the 2020 and 2024 presidential races—and his 59.8% 2024 win margin. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican, bolstered by robust fundraising and no serious GOP primary challengers ahead of the June 23 primaries. Democrats face a contested primary with Patrick Halpin, Jess Murphy, and Garrett Petersen, lacking a clear frontrunner amid absent district-specific polling. The April 2 filing deadline looms as the next catalyst, while national midterm turnout patterns could influence battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,014结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Andrew Garbarino's strong incumbency in the R+6 leaning NY-02 district drives trader consensus toward a 66% implied probability for GOP victory, reflecting the South Shore Long Island seat's rightward shift—nearly 12 points between the 2020 and 2024 presidential races—and his 59.8% 2024 win margin. Forecasters including Cook Political Report rate it Solid Republican, bolstered by robust fundraising and no serious GOP primary challengers ahead of the June 23 primaries. Democrats face a contested primary with Patrick Halpin, Jess Murphy, and Garrett Petersen, lacking a clear frontrunner amid absent district-specific polling. The April 2 filing deadline looms as the next catalyst, while national midterm turnout patterns could influence battleground dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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