Steve Toth's victory over incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary solidified the GOP nomination in this solidly Republican district, rated as such by the Cook Political Report, driving trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of a Republican House win on November 3. The upset, fueled by Sen. Ted Cruz's endorsement of Toth amid conservative intraparty challenges, underscores strong GOP base support in TX-02, a Houston-area seat with a partisan lean favoring Republicans by double digits historically. Democrats advanced an unopposed nominee amid low primary turnout, facing steep barriers including limited resources and no polling indicating competitiveness, though national midterm dynamics or late scandals could theoretically shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
89%
民主党
12%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
共和党
$3,068 交易量
89%
民主党
$0 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Toth's victory over incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary solidified the GOP nomination in this solidly Republican district, rated as such by the Cook Political Report, driving trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of a Republican House win on November 3. The upset, fueled by Sen. Ted Cruz's endorsement of Toth amid conservative intraparty challenges, underscores strong GOP base support in TX-02, a Houston-area seat with a partisan lean favoring Republicans by double digits historically. Democrats advanced an unopposed nominee amid low primary turnout, facing steep barriers including limited resources and no polling indicating competitiveness, though national midterm dynamics or late scandals could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
交易量
$3,068结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Toth's victory over incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary solidified the GOP nomination in this solidly Republican district, rated as such by the Cook Political Report, driving trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of a Republican House win on November 3. The upset, fueled by Sen. Ted Cruz's endorsement of Toth amid conservative intraparty challenges, underscores strong GOP base support in TX-02, a Houston-area seat with a partisan lean favoring Republicans by double digits historically. Democrats advanced an unopposed nominee amid low primary turnout, facing steep barriers including limited resources and no polling indicating competitiveness, though national midterm dynamics or late scandals could theoretically shift odds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$3,068结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Steve Toth's victory over incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw in the March 3 Republican primary solidified the GOP nomination in this solidly Republican district, rated as such by the Cook Political Report, driving trader consensus toward an 88.5% implied probability of a Republican House win on November 3. The upset, fueled by Sen. Ted Cruz's endorsement of Toth amid conservative intraparty challenges, underscores strong GOP base support in TX-02, a Houston-area seat with a partisan lean favoring Republicans by double digits historically. Democrats advanced an unopposed nominee amid low primary turnout, facing steep barriers including limited resources and no polling indicating competitiveness, though national midterm dynamics or late scandals could theoretically shift odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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