Recent polling in California's 21st Congressional District shows Democrat Adam Gray leading incumbent Republican David Valadao by 4–7 points across multiple surveys from the past week, including a Berkeley IGS poll with Gray at 50% and Valadao at 44%, fueling trader consensus at 88.5% for a Democratic win. Early vote data reveals Democrats holding a substantial edge in mail ballots from this Central Valley battleground, where Latino turnout and agriculture issues play key roles. Valadao's incumbency provides resilience, but Gray's fundraising advantage and national midterm headwinds for Republicans have widened the gap since mid-October, though the race remains within the margin of error ahead of the November 5 election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
89%
共和党
11%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
89%
共和党
$0 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling in California's 21st Congressional District shows Democrat Adam Gray leading incumbent Republican David Valadao by 4–7 points across multiple surveys from the past week, including a Berkeley IGS poll with Gray at 50% and Valadao at 44%, fueling trader consensus at 88.5% for a Democratic win. Early vote data reveals Democrats holding a substantial edge in mail ballots from this Central Valley battleground, where Latino turnout and agriculture issues play key roles. Valadao's incumbency provides resilience, but Gray's fundraising advantage and national midterm headwinds for Republicans have widened the gap since mid-October, though the race remains within the margin of error ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Recent polling in California's 21st Congressional District shows Democrat Adam Gray leading incumbent Republican David Valadao by 4–7 points across multiple surveys from the past week, including a Berkeley IGS poll with Gray at 50% and Valadao at 44%, fueling trader consensus at 88.5% for a Democratic win. Early vote data reveals Democrats holding a substantial edge in mail ballots from this Central Valley battleground, where Latino turnout and agriculture issues play key roles. Valadao's incumbency provides resilience, but Gray's fundraising advantage and national midterm headwinds for Republicans have widened the gap since mid-October, though the race remains within the margin of error ahead of the November 5 election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling in California's 21st Congressional District shows Democrat Adam Gray leading incumbent Republican David Valadao by 4–7 points across multiple surveys from the past week, including a Berkeley IGS poll with Gray at 50% and Valadao at 44%, fueling trader consensus at 88.5% for a Democratic win. Early vote data reveals Democrats holding a substantial edge in mail ballots from this Central Valley battleground, where Latino turnout and agriculture issues play key roles. Valadao's incumbency provides resilience, but Gray's fundraising advantage and national midterm headwinds for Republicans have widened the gap since mid-October, though the race remains within the margin of error ahead of the November 5 election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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