Democratic Representative Jim Costa's incumbency in California's 21st congressional district, combined with its D+5 partisan voting index and recent voting patterns favoring Democratic presidential candidates by roughly six points, underpins trader consensus around an 87.5% probability for the Democratic Party to win the November 2026 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Costa faces multiple Democratic challengers alongside Republican contenders. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or redistricting have altered the district's structural advantages for Democrats in the past month, leaving limited pathways for Republican gains despite the competitive primary field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
88%
共和党
12%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$3,190 交易量
88%
共和党
$1,694 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Representative Jim Costa's incumbency in California's 21st congressional district, combined with its D+5 partisan voting index and recent voting patterns favoring Democratic presidential candidates by roughly six points, underpins trader consensus around an 87.5% probability for the Democratic Party to win the November 2026 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Costa faces multiple Democratic challengers alongside Republican contenders. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or redistricting have altered the district's structural advantages for Democrats in the past month, leaving limited pathways for Republican gains despite the competitive primary field.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$4,884结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic Representative Jim Costa's incumbency in California's 21st congressional district, combined with its D+5 partisan voting index and recent voting patterns favoring Democratic presidential candidates by roughly six points, underpins trader consensus around an 87.5% probability for the Democratic Party to win the November 2026 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Costa faces multiple Democratic challengers alongside Republican contenders. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or redistricting have altered the district's structural advantages for Democrats in the past month, leaving limited pathways for Republican gains despite the competitive primary field.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$4,884结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic Representative Jim Costa's incumbency in California's 21st congressional district, combined with its D+5 partisan voting index and recent voting patterns favoring Democratic presidential candidates by roughly six points, underpins trader consensus around an 87.5% probability for the Democratic Party to win the November 2026 general election. Forecasters rate the seat Likely Democratic ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where Costa faces multiple Democratic challengers alongside Republican contenders. No major shifts in polling, endorsements, or redistricting have altered the district's structural advantages for Democrats in the past month, leaving limited pathways for Republican gains despite the competitive primary field.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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