Ken Calvert leads trader sentiment in the CA-40 race at 65.5% implied probability, reflecting his stronger performance in the June 2026 top-two primary where he secured roughly 35% of the vote and advanced alongside Young Kim. Redistricting merged two Republican-held seats, creating an intra-party general election matchup on November 3 that favors Calvert's broader base of support among primary voters. Kim trails at 32.5% amid splits in Democratic turnout and Calvert's established fundraising and incumbency advantages in the newly configured district. Other listed outcomes at 50% align with the two-candidate field, as no additional contenders advanced. Recent primary results and campaign spending patterns continue to anchor these probabilities ahead of the fall contest.