Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to retain Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's strong re-election bid in this solidly Democratic Hampton Roads stronghold, where he secured easy victories in recent cycles including 2024. The district's heavy Black voter turnout and urban Norfolk base provide a reliable path to victory, with no credible Republican challenger yet emerging ahead of the August 4 primaries for both parties. Recent state actions, like shifting primaries from June to accommodate potential redistricting, have not altered fundamentals. Upsets could stem from a Scott health issue, Democratic primary surprise, or national midterm wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$684 交易量
92%
共和党
$1,250 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to retain Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's strong re-election bid in this solidly Democratic Hampton Roads stronghold, where he secured easy victories in recent cycles including 2024. The district's heavy Black voter turnout and urban Norfolk base provide a reliable path to victory, with no credible Republican challenger yet emerging ahead of the August 4 primaries for both parties. Recent state actions, like shifting primaries from June to accommodate potential redistricting, have not altered fundamentals. Upsets could stem from a Scott health issue, Democratic primary surprise, or national midterm wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$1,934结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to retain Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's strong re-election bid in this solidly Democratic Hampton Roads stronghold, where he secured easy victories in recent cycles including 2024. The district's heavy Black voter turnout and urban Norfolk base provide a reliable path to victory, with no credible Republican challenger yet emerging ahead of the August 4 primaries for both parties. Recent state actions, like shifting primaries from June to accommodate potential redistricting, have not altered fundamentals. Upsets could stem from a Scott health issue, Democratic primary surprise, or national midterm wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$1,934结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% implied probability to retain Virginia's 3rd Congressional District House seat, driven by longtime incumbent Rep. Bobby Scott's strong re-election bid in this solidly Democratic Hampton Roads stronghold, where he secured easy victories in recent cycles including 2024. The district's heavy Black voter turnout and urban Norfolk base provide a reliable path to victory, with no credible Republican challenger yet emerging ahead of the August 4 primaries for both parties. Recent state actions, like shifting primaries from June to accommodate potential redistricting, have not altered fundamentals. Upsets could stem from a Scott health issue, Democratic primary surprise, or national midterm wave, though structural advantages make these low-probability scenarios.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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