Incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman holds a commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win Ohio's 1st Congressional District, driven by his strong fundraising advantage over challengers and a February internal poll showing him leading a generic Republican by 6 points districtwide, with a 20-point edge among independents. The Republican primary on May 5 remains fragmented among four candidates—former CIA officer Eric Conroy, businesswoman Holly Adams, Steven Erbeck, and nonprofit CEO Rosemary Oglesby-Henry—lacking a clear frontrunner, potentially yielding a weaker general election nominee. Recent statewide polls signaling Democratic gains in Ohio's Senate and gubernatorial races have bolstered sentiment, despite the district's post-redistricting R+1 Cook PVI and toss-up ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Landsman's Democratic primary against Damon Lynch appears low-risk ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
74%
共和党
19%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主党
$0 交易量
74%
共和党
$445 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman holds a commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win Ohio's 1st Congressional District, driven by his strong fundraising advantage over challengers and a February internal poll showing him leading a generic Republican by 6 points districtwide, with a 20-point edge among independents. The Republican primary on May 5 remains fragmented among four candidates—former CIA officer Eric Conroy, businesswoman Holly Adams, Steven Erbeck, and nonprofit CEO Rosemary Oglesby-Henry—lacking a clear frontrunner, potentially yielding a weaker general election nominee. Recent statewide polls signaling Democratic gains in Ohio's Senate and gubernatorial races have bolstered sentiment, despite the district's post-redistricting R+1 Cook PVI and toss-up ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Landsman's Democratic primary against Damon Lynch appears low-risk ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
交易量
$445结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman holds a commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win Ohio's 1st Congressional District, driven by his strong fundraising advantage over challengers and a February internal poll showing him leading a generic Republican by 6 points districtwide, with a 20-point edge among independents. The Republican primary on May 5 remains fragmented among four candidates—former CIA officer Eric Conroy, businesswoman Holly Adams, Steven Erbeck, and nonprofit CEO Rosemary Oglesby-Henry—lacking a clear frontrunner, potentially yielding a weaker general election nominee. Recent statewide polls signaling Democratic gains in Ohio's Senate and gubernatorial races have bolstered sentiment, despite the district's post-redistricting R+1 Cook PVI and toss-up ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Landsman's Democratic primary against Damon Lynch appears low-risk ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$445结束日期
Nov 4, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman holds a commanding trader consensus at 74% implied probability to win Ohio's 1st Congressional District, driven by his strong fundraising advantage over challengers and a February internal poll showing him leading a generic Republican by 6 points districtwide, with a 20-point edge among independents. The Republican primary on May 5 remains fragmented among four candidates—former CIA officer Eric Conroy, businesswoman Holly Adams, Steven Erbeck, and nonprofit CEO Rosemary Oglesby-Henry—lacking a clear frontrunner, potentially yielding a weaker general election nominee. Recent statewide polls signaling Democratic gains in Ohio's Senate and gubernatorial races have bolstered sentiment, despite the district's post-redistricting R+1 Cook PVI and toss-up ratings from forecasters like Cook Political Report. Landsman's Democratic primary against Damon Lynch appears low-risk ahead of the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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