Incumbent Rep. Sean Casten (D) secured the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 6th Congressional District with a strong primary win on March 17, facing Republican Niki Conforti in the November 3 general election. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's D+3 partisan voting index and Casten's 2024 victory margin of eight points despite closer-than-expected results. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Democrats stems from incumbency advantage, Casten's fundraising dominance, and Conforti's profile as a political newcomer. While dominant, odds could shift via a strong Republican midterm wave, late scandals, health events, or legal developments impacting Casten before election night.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
民主党
$6,581 交易量
92%
共和党
$0 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Sean Casten (D) secured the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 6th Congressional District with a strong primary win on March 17, facing Republican Niki Conforti in the November 3 general election. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's D+3 partisan voting index and Casten's 2024 victory margin of eight points despite closer-than-expected results. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Democrats stems from incumbency advantage, Casten's fundraising dominance, and Conforti's profile as a political newcomer. While dominant, odds could shift via a strong Republican midterm wave, late scandals, health events, or legal developments impacting Casten before election night.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$6,581结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Sean Casten (D) secured the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 6th Congressional District with a strong primary win on March 17, facing Republican Niki Conforti in the November 3 general election. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's D+3 partisan voting index and Casten's 2024 victory margin of eight points despite closer-than-expected results. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Democrats stems from incumbency advantage, Casten's fundraising dominance, and Conforti's profile as a political newcomer. While dominant, odds could shift via a strong Republican midterm wave, late scandals, health events, or legal developments impacting Casten before election night.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$6,581结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Sean Casten (D) secured the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 6th Congressional District with a strong primary win on March 17, facing Republican Niki Conforti in the November 3 general election. Cook Political Report rates the race Solid Democratic, reflecting the district's D+3 partisan voting index and Casten's 2024 victory margin of eight points despite closer-than-expected results. Trader consensus at 92.5% for Democrats stems from incumbency advantage, Casten's fundraising dominance, and Conforti's profile as a political newcomer. While dominant, odds could shift via a strong Republican midterm wave, late scandals, health events, or legal developments impacting Casten before election night.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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