Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district, where forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic following redistricting that strengthened its D+8 partisan lean. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the June 2 primary, yet fundraising and organization remain fragmented on that side. Trader consensus at 90.5% for a Democratic victory reflects these structural factors, including Harder's prior general-election wins and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. A national Republican wave or unexpected primary consolidation could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,756 交易量
$11,756 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
91%
共和党
9%
$11,756 交易量
$11,756 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$9,166 交易量
91%
共和党
$2,590 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district, where forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic following redistricting that strengthened its D+8 partisan lean. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the June 2 primary, yet fundraising and organization remain fragmented on that side. Trader consensus at 90.5% for a Democratic victory reflects these structural factors, including Harder's prior general-election wins and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. A national Republican wave or unexpected primary consolidation could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$11,756结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district, where forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic following redistricting that strengthened its D+8 partisan lean. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the June 2 primary, yet fundraising and organization remain fragmented on that side. Trader consensus at 90.5% for a Democratic victory reflects these structural factors, including Harder's prior general-election wins and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. A national Republican wave or unexpected primary consolidation could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,756结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Josh Harder holds a commanding position in California's 9th congressional district, where forecasters rate the seat solid Democratic following redistricting that strengthened its D+8 partisan lean. Multiple Republican candidates have filed for the June 2 primary, yet fundraising and organization remain fragmented on that side. Trader consensus at 90.5% for a Democratic victory reflects these structural factors, including Harder's prior general-election wins and the absence of major recent developments that would alter the outlook. A national Republican wave or unexpected primary consolidation could still narrow the margin before the November 3 general election.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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