Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 17 Illinois primary, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Julie Fortier, who also ran without opposition, in the strongly Republican-leaning IL-12 district with a Cook PVI of R+22. Bost's commanding past victories—74% in 2024 and 75% in 2022—combined with his fundraising edge ($480,000 cash on hand vs. Fortier's $20,000) and solid ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball underpin trader consensus implying 90.5% odds for a Republican hold on November 3. Potential challengers include a major scandal, health issues for Bost, or a powerful national Democratic wave, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
91%
民主党
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和党
$0 交易量
91%
民主党
$0 交易量
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 17 Illinois primary, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Julie Fortier, who also ran without opposition, in the strongly Republican-leaning IL-12 district with a Cook PVI of R+22. Bost's commanding past victories—74% in 2024 and 75% in 2022—combined with his fundraising edge ($480,000 cash on hand vs. Fortier's $20,000) and solid ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball underpin trader consensus implying 90.5% odds for a Republican hold on November 3. Potential challengers include a major scandal, health issues for Bost, or a powerful national Democratic wave, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 17 Illinois primary, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Julie Fortier, who also ran without opposition, in the strongly Republican-leaning IL-12 district with a Cook PVI of R+22. Bost's commanding past victories—74% in 2024 and 75% in 2022—combined with his fundraising edge ($480,000 cash on hand vs. Fortier's $20,000) and solid ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball underpin trader consensus implying 90.5% odds for a Republican hold on November 3. Potential challengers include a major scandal, health issues for Bost, or a powerful national Democratic wave, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0结束日期
Nov 3, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost secured his party's nomination unopposed in the March 17 Illinois primary, setting up a general election matchup against Democrat Julie Fortier, who also ran without opposition, in the strongly Republican-leaning IL-12 district with a Cook PVI of R+22. Bost's commanding past victories—74% in 2024 and 75% in 2022—combined with his fundraising edge ($480,000 cash on hand vs. Fortier's $20,000) and solid ratings from Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball underpin trader consensus implying 90.5% odds for a Republican hold on November 3. Potential challengers include a major scandal, health issues for Bost, or a powerful national Democratic wave, though historical base rates for such safe seats favor continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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