California's 38th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic advantage, driven by its D+50 partisan voting index, voter registration patterns, and consistent electoral history that have limited Republican performance in recent cycles. Redistricting under Proposition 50 created an open seat with multiple Democratic primary contenders, including Hilda Solis backed by the state party organization, while the single Republican candidate confronts structural barriers in a heavily Democratic area. With the June 2 primary approaching ahead of the November general election, trader consensus reflects these fundamentals. Late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or turnout surprises could still narrow the margin, though historical precedent indicates such changes rarely overcome the district's baseline lean.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$57,402 交易量
$57,402 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
5%
$57,402 交易量
$57,402 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$28,855 交易量
94%
共和党
$28,547 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic advantage, driven by its D+50 partisan voting index, voter registration patterns, and consistent electoral history that have limited Republican performance in recent cycles. Redistricting under Proposition 50 created an open seat with multiple Democratic primary contenders, including Hilda Solis backed by the state party organization, while the single Republican candidate confronts structural barriers in a heavily Democratic area. With the June 2 primary approaching ahead of the November general election, trader consensus reflects these fundamentals. Late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or turnout surprises could still narrow the margin, though historical precedent indicates such changes rarely overcome the district's baseline lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$57,402结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 38th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic advantage, driven by its D+50 partisan voting index, voter registration patterns, and consistent electoral history that have limited Republican performance in recent cycles. Redistricting under Proposition 50 created an open seat with multiple Democratic primary contenders, including Hilda Solis backed by the state party organization, while the single Republican candidate confronts structural barriers in a heavily Democratic area. With the June 2 primary approaching ahead of the November general election, trader consensus reflects these fundamentals. Late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or turnout surprises could still narrow the margin, though historical precedent indicates such changes rarely overcome the district's baseline lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$57,402结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 38th congressional district maintains a pronounced Democratic advantage, driven by its D+50 partisan voting index, voter registration patterns, and consistent electoral history that have limited Republican performance in recent cycles. Redistricting under Proposition 50 created an open seat with multiple Democratic primary contenders, including Hilda Solis backed by the state party organization, while the single Republican candidate confronts structural barriers in a heavily Democratic area. With the June 2 primary approaching ahead of the November general election, trader consensus reflects these fundamentals. Late-cycle developments such as national economic shifts, candidate-specific controversies, or turnout surprises could still narrow the margin, though historical precedent indicates such changes rarely overcome the district's baseline lean.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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