The new boundaries established by California’s Proposition 50 redistricting have produced a district with a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8 to D+10 and a Solid D rating from independent analysts. The open seat, created by the prior incumbent’s move to a neighboring district, drew multiple Democratic primary contenders including state-endorsed Hilda Solis, while the lone Republican entrant faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and historical turnout patterns. This combination of map-driven partisan advantage and primary consolidation has anchored the 94 percent Democratic implied probability in the market. Unexpected shifts in general-election turnout or unforeseen candidate controversies remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$58,272 交易量
$58,272 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
94%
共和党
4%
$58,272 交易量
$58,272 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$28,983 交易量
94%
共和党
$29,288 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The new boundaries established by California’s Proposition 50 redistricting have produced a district with a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8 to D+10 and a Solid D rating from independent analysts. The open seat, created by the prior incumbent’s move to a neighboring district, drew multiple Democratic primary contenders including state-endorsed Hilda Solis, while the lone Republican entrant faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and historical turnout patterns. This combination of map-driven partisan advantage and primary consolidation has anchored the 94 percent Democratic implied probability in the market. Unexpected shifts in general-election turnout or unforeseen candidate controversies remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$58,272结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The new boundaries established by California’s Proposition 50 redistricting have produced a district with a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8 to D+10 and a Solid D rating from independent analysts. The open seat, created by the prior incumbent’s move to a neighboring district, drew multiple Democratic primary contenders including state-endorsed Hilda Solis, while the lone Republican entrant faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and historical turnout patterns. This combination of map-driven partisan advantage and primary consolidation has anchored the 94 percent Democratic implied probability in the market. Unexpected shifts in general-election turnout or unforeseen candidate controversies remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$58,272结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The new boundaries established by California’s Proposition 50 redistricting have produced a district with a pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+8 to D+10 and a Solid D rating from independent analysts. The open seat, created by the prior incumbent’s move to a neighboring district, drew multiple Democratic primary contenders including state-endorsed Hilda Solis, while the lone Republican entrant faces structural disadvantages in voter registration and historical turnout patterns. This combination of map-driven partisan advantage and primary consolidation has anchored the 94 percent Democratic implied probability in the market. Unexpected shifts in general-election turnout or unforeseen candidate controversies remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap before November.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题