The first-round turnout of 73.81% on April 12-13 sets the primary benchmark for trader expectations in the June 7 runoff between Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez. Peru’s mandatory voting rules, a closely polarized right-left contest, and the brief three-week campaign window after official confirmation support participation levels clustered in the 70-80% range. Logistical challenges from the initial round, including polling delays in some areas, combined with persistent political instability and voter fatigue, limit prospects for a sharp increase. Recent polls showing a tight race between the candidates have not introduced major new mobilization catalysts, keeping implied probabilities anchored near historical runoff patterns rather than extremes.