Andy Burnham leads the Makerfield by-election market at 73.5% as the Labour candidate, reflecting his established profile as Greater Manchester mayor and the party's historical strength in the constituency since the 2024 general election, where it held the seat despite Reform UK placing second with 31.8%. Josh Simons resigned on 14 May 2026 specifically to enable Burnham's candidacy ahead of the 18 June vote, positioning the contest as a potential stepping stone for Labour leadership ambitions amid internal party pressures. Recent campaign launches and a Survation poll have highlighted Burnham's personal draw narrowing Reform's generic-ballot advantage, though Robert Kenyon at 23.5% benefits from ongoing dissatisfaction with national Labour performance and strong local Reform showing in recent locals. Minor candidates remain marginal given the two-way dynamic.