Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to deliver a Democratic hold in California's 39th Congressional District, a Solid Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with D+7 partisan voter index, reflecting his strong reelection history and fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against underfunded Republican Steve Manos. National generic ballot polling averages showing Democratic leads further solidify this positioning, as the Inland Empire district favors the party structurally. While commanding, odds could shift via a primary upset advancing a strong GOP contender, Takano scandal, health issues, or a Republican surge in midterm turnout among key voting blocs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$13,795 交易量
$13,795 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
$13,795 交易量
$13,795 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$9,078 交易量
92%
共和党
$4,716 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to deliver a Democratic hold in California's 39th Congressional District, a Solid Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with D+7 partisan voter index, reflecting his strong reelection history and fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against underfunded Republican Steve Manos. National generic ballot polling averages showing Democratic leads further solidify this positioning, as the Inland Empire district favors the party structurally. While commanding, odds could shift via a primary upset advancing a strong GOP contender, Takano scandal, health issues, or a Republican surge in midterm turnout among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$13,795结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to deliver a Democratic hold in California's 39th Congressional District, a Solid Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with D+7 partisan voter index, reflecting his strong reelection history and fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against underfunded Republican Steve Manos. National generic ballot polling averages showing Democratic leads further solidify this positioning, as the Inland Empire district favors the party structurally. While commanding, odds could shift via a primary upset advancing a strong GOP contender, Takano scandal, health issues, or a Republican surge in midterm turnout among key voting blocs.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,795结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Mark Takano (D) commands trader consensus at 91.5% implied probability to deliver a Democratic hold in California's 39th Congressional District, a Solid Democratic seat per Cook Political Report with D+7 partisan voter index, reflecting his strong reelection history and fundraising edge ahead of the June 2 top-two primary against underfunded Republican Steve Manos. National generic ballot polling averages showing Democratic leads further solidify this positioning, as the Inland Empire district favors the party structurally. While commanding, odds could shift via a primary upset advancing a strong GOP contender, Takano scandal, health issues, or a Republican surge in midterm turnout among key voting blocs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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