Incumbent Democrat Mark Takano seeks reelection in California's 39th district, which covers parts of western Riverside County and carries a Democratic lean reflected in recent presidential and House results. The nonpartisan primary on June 2 features limited opposition from Republican Steve Manos, with the general election set for November 3. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 91.5% implied probability, consistent with the district's partisan voting index and the structural edge incumbents hold in similar seats. A significant national Republican surge or unexpected primary dynamics could narrow the margin, though no such developments have materialized in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$32,793 交易量
$32,793 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
92%
共和党
8%
$32,793 交易量
$32,793 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$26,631 交易量
92%
共和党
$6,162 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark Takano seeks reelection in California's 39th district, which covers parts of western Riverside County and carries a Democratic lean reflected in recent presidential and House results. The nonpartisan primary on June 2 features limited opposition from Republican Steve Manos, with the general election set for November 3. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 91.5% implied probability, consistent with the district's partisan voting index and the structural edge incumbents hold in similar seats. A significant national Republican surge or unexpected primary dynamics could narrow the margin, though no such developments have materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$32,793结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark Takano seeks reelection in California's 39th district, which covers parts of western Riverside County and carries a Democratic lean reflected in recent presidential and House results. The nonpartisan primary on June 2 features limited opposition from Republican Steve Manos, with the general election set for November 3. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 91.5% implied probability, consistent with the district's partisan voting index and the structural edge incumbents hold in similar seats. A significant national Republican surge or unexpected primary dynamics could narrow the margin, though no such developments have materialized in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$32,793结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark Takano seeks reelection in California's 39th district, which covers parts of western Riverside County and carries a Democratic lean reflected in recent presidential and House results. The nonpartisan primary on June 2 features limited opposition from Republican Steve Manos, with the general election set for November 3. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 91.5% implied probability, consistent with the district's partisan voting index and the structural edge incumbents hold in similar seats. A significant national Republican surge or unexpected primary dynamics could narrow the margin, though no such developments have materialized in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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