Texas's 38th congressional district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and received solid or safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, which underpins the Republican nominee's strong standing in the prediction market. The open seat, vacated by Wesley Hunt's Senate run, featured a March 3 Republican primary that advanced mortgage banker Jon Bonck and Shelly deZevallos to a May 26 runoff, with Bonck holding fundraising and endorsement advantages including support from Donald Trump. Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough remains underfunded relative to her opponents. These structural and campaign dynamics, set against national midterm patterns favoring the opposition party in some districts, explain traders' 77 percent consensus probability for a Republican general election win.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$15,920 交易量
$15,920 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
77%
民主党
19%
$15,920 交易量
$15,920 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$10,798 交易量
77%
民主党
$5,122 交易量
19%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and received solid or safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, which underpins the Republican nominee's strong standing in the prediction market. The open seat, vacated by Wesley Hunt's Senate run, featured a March 3 Republican primary that advanced mortgage banker Jon Bonck and Shelly deZevallos to a May 26 runoff, with Bonck holding fundraising and endorsement advantages including support from Donald Trump. Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough remains underfunded relative to her opponents. These structural and campaign dynamics, set against national midterm patterns favoring the opposition party in some districts, explain traders' 77 percent consensus probability for a Republican general election win.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
交易量
$15,920结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and received solid or safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, which underpins the Republican nominee's strong standing in the prediction market. The open seat, vacated by Wesley Hunt's Senate run, featured a March 3 Republican primary that advanced mortgage banker Jon Bonck and Shelly deZevallos to a May 26 runoff, with Bonck holding fundraising and endorsement advantages including support from Donald Trump. Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough remains underfunded relative to her opponents. These structural and campaign dynamics, set against national midterm patterns favoring the opposition party in some districts, explain traders' 77 percent consensus probability for a Republican general election win.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$15,920结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 38th congressional district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and received solid or safe Republican ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball, which underpins the Republican nominee's strong standing in the prediction market. The open seat, vacated by Wesley Hunt's Senate run, featured a March 3 Republican primary that advanced mortgage banker Jon Bonck and Shelly deZevallos to a May 26 runoff, with Bonck holding fundraising and endorsement advantages including support from Donald Trump. Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough remains underfunded relative to her opponents. These structural and campaign dynamics, set against national midterm patterns favoring the opposition party in some districts, explain traders' 77 percent consensus probability for a Republican general election win.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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